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AXNT20 KNHC 261747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING N OF 27N WEST OF A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INCLUDING JUST OFF THE N FL COAST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 13 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N13W TO 3N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N35W TO 3N43W TO THE SOUTH AMERICA COAST NEAR 1N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N TO 06N BETWEEN 33W AND 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 09W AND 20W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO AND TX WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN US. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO N FL AND THEN ACROSS THE GULF FROM 29N83W TO 25N97W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. W WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE SE OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND S FL NEAR 27N82W AND INTO THE SE GULF TO 24N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF AND MOVE OVER THE W ATLANTIC...CUBA...AND NW CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN ON TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE N COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W TO 20N81W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N81W TO 14N84W. SHOWERS ARE S OF 16N AND OVER THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A SMALL AREA OF WINDS NEAR 25 KT OVER THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. NE WINDS AROUND 20 KT COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WILL BE NEAR JAMAICA AND HAITI BY TUESDAY EVENING.


...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE NW TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE US AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A PRE- FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO 31N78W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 28N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE US COAST...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE SAME UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N58W TO 29N68W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT TO 25N74W TO THE CENTRAL CUBA COAST NEAR 22N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH...FORMERLY A STATIONARY FRONT...EXTENDS FROM 30N42W TO 21N44W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N34W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 28W AND 37W. THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH NEAR 40N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

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