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000
AXNT20 KNHC 271804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 mb low pressure is centered near 27N73W and is currently interacting with a broad upper-level trough, supporting scattered moderate convection in the SW N Atlantic between 60W and 78W. A surface trough extends from 29N72w, to the low, to 22N74W. Environmental conditions are generally conducive for a tropical or subtropical cyclone to form later today or Saturday while this system moves west-northwestward toward the southeastern United States coast. There is a high chance for this system to develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. For more information on this system, please refer to the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOAT/ABNT20.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the far eastern tropical Atlantic with the axis extending from 14N18W to 05N18W. The wave has a well- defined 700 mb trough axis as seen in the GFS analysis and rawindsondes in West Africa. The wave is embedded in a moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb, according to CIRA layer precipitable water. Enhanced Meteosat imagery show dust in the northern wave environment, thus limiting the convection to scattered moderate from 5N to 9N between 17W and 21W.

A tropical wave is in the west tropical Atlantic with an axis extending from 12N51W to 04N52W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave has become difficult to track and only is weakly apparent in the SUNY-Albany tropical wave diagnostics at 700 mb. No deep convection is present currently associated with the wave.

A third tropical wave is located in the eastern Caribbean, extending from 16N64W to 06N65W. The wave is embedded in a moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb. This moisture along with diffluent flow aloft support scattered to isolated showers E of 70W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ begins near 05N21W and continues to 02N35W then to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ east of 30W and west of 40W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis extends across the Florida peninsula SW to near 93W in the western Gulf. A tight pres gradient between this ridge and an elongated area of low pres anchored over the central plains support fresh to strong SE wind N of 22N W of 90W as indicated by latest scatterometer data. The strongest winds are over Texas adjacent waters. Gentle to moderate SE flow covers the eastern region of the basin. Fair weather prevails being supported by strong deep layer environmental shear and mostly dry air at the lower levels. Winds in the W-NW basin will diminish below 25 kt before Saturday sunrise, however fresh to strong winds are forecast to develop off the Yucatan Peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche Saturday and Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough extending from a low anchored near the central Bahamas extends into the western Caribbean with water vapor imagery showing very dry conditions aloft. Over the eastern basin, a tropical wave extends along 65W. Moisture in this region of the basin along with a diffluent environment aloft support scattered to isolated showers mainly E of 70W. Similar weather conditions are across Hispaniola and adjacent waters and across eastern Cuba E of 77W. The Northeast Pacific's Monsoon Trough continues to induce showers and isolated thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean S of 11N. With the development of the area of low pres in the SW N Atlantic, the north-to-south pressure gradient over the Caribbean has substantially reduced, and the resulting tradewinds are only 10- 15 kt across the Caribbean, except 20 kt near the coast of Colombia. The combination of the upper trough, abundant moisture, and the approaching easterly wave currently near the Windward Islands may produce scattered to numerous moderate convection with isolated to scattered deep convection over the central Caribbean including the Greater Antilles during the next two days. The tradewinds will remain relatively weak through Sunday.

HISPANIOLA...

An upper-level trough that extends into the western Caribbean is helping to induce scattered moderate convection across the island and adjacent waters. The combination of the upper trough, abundant moisture, and an approaching easterly wave currently over the eastern Caribbean may produce scattered to numerous moderate convection with isolated to scattered deep convection over Hispaniola during the next two days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for details on a low near 27N73W and the tropical waves section. Over the central Atlantic a cold front extends from a 1018 mb low near 27N28W WSW to a 1021 mb low near 27N37W to 26N42W to 28N46W. A surface trough extends from the second low to 24N44W. No convection is associated with any of these features. Elsewhere, surface ridging dominates. The frontal lows will dissipate early Saturday.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Ramos

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