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000
AXNT20 KNHC 272338
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the tropical Atlantic
with axis extending from 17N37W to 06N34W, moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 35W-45W
and remains surrounded by Saharan dust. As a result, no
significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this
time.

A tropical wave was introduced to the 1800 UTC map after
analyzing latest guidance, satellite imagery and latest
observations. This low-amplitude wave extends its axis from
13N54W to 05N54W, and is moving W at around 10-15 kt. Isolated
convection is observed within this wave from 02N-12N between 50W-
56W.

A tropical wave extends over Central America with axis from
17N87W to 09N83W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with
broad 700 mb troughing over the SW Caribbean Sea and portions of
Central America between 79W-88W. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms prevail in the environment of this wave
affecting Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well
as the Caribbean waters from 10N-16N and W of 80W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across the African continent to
12N17W. From this point, the ITCZ begins and continues to
06N48W. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevails along
and S of the Monsoon Trough between 13W-17W while isolated
showers are observed along the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tranquil conditions are across the basin as a 1020 mb surface
high is centered over central Texas and extends across the area.
A surface trough is moving over the Bay of Campeche with axis
from 22N93W to 19N93W. Scattered moderate convection prevails
along the Yucatan Peninsula. This activity will move W affecting
the Gulf waters S of 22N. Scatterometer data depicts a light to
gentle anticyclonic flow across the basin. Expect for a similar
weather pattern to prevail during the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low is centered over Central America along with a
tropical wave currently over Honduras/Nicaragua/Costa Rica are
providing the necessary low-level and upper level lifting
dynamics to generate scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms S of 17N and W of 80W. To the N of the basin, the
base of an upper-level trough extends across the northwestern
Caribbean N of 14N W of 68W. This feature is supporting
convection across portions of Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the
basin except S of 14N between 72W-77W where fresh to strong
winds prevail. Little change is expected within the next 24
hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered moderate convection prevails across the island as the
base of an upper-level trough extends over the NW Caribbean.
Expect for this weather pattern to continue during the next 24
hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1016 mb surface low is centered across the western Atlantic
near 31N79W. A weak frontal boundary extends SW from the low to
NE Florida with no significant convection. Two tropical waves
are moving across the tropical Atlantic. Please refer tot he
section above for details. The remainder of the basin is
dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1035 high centered
near 41N31W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the surface low
and front to dissipate. Surface ridging will prevail.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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