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AXNT20 KNHC 022355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA AND THEN INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 08N12W CONTINUING TO 02N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 02N18W AND THEN EXTENDS ALONG 03N30W TO 02N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS W OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 06N41W TO 01S40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S TO 05N BETWEEN 07W AND 30W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 34W AND 42W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AS OF 2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W TO 26N95W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N90W TO 25N93W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IN THE N-NE GULF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. HAZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED IN THE NW BASIN N OF 26N WHILE THE GOES IFR AND LIFR SHOW MAINLY MEDIUM FOG PROBABILITIES EXTENDING S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE E-SE ACROSS THE BASIN. FRESH NE AND SE WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONVECTIVE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND SE BASIN THROUGH THU MORNING WHEN THE FRONT MOVE OFF THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SHORT-WAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG WITH AIR LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ADJACENT WATERS. GOES LIGHTING DENSITY DATA SHOW ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CUBA AND ACROSS MOST OF HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES COVERS THE BASIN AS A WEAK PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THE NORTH- CENTRAL AND NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. ON THU MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BASIN WITH SHOWERS.

HISPANIOLA...

A SHORT-WAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC BY SE FLOW SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH S OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 76W ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 22N BETWEEN 42W AND 62W. TWO 1017 MB LOW PRES CENTERS LINGERS IN THE BASIN...ONE NEAR 23N57W AND THE OTHER NEAR 24N39W. NONE WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING ELSEWHERE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED NM NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. NEW CONVECTION WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLC OFF THE N FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS TUE...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ RAMOS

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