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AXNT20 KNHC 261722
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N30W TO 10N32W AND IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS WHICH IS INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 14N61W TO 09N63W AND IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 20 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 60W-65W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N80W TO 10N81W AND IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE LATEST VISIBLE INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 14N16W AND THEN CONTINUES ALONG 09N25W TO 09N40W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N40W TO 10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 11N25W...WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N36W TO 09N42W...AND ALONG AND S OF THE ITCZ TO 07N BETWEEN 49W AND 56W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A SMALL MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS POSITIONED OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 25N85W AND IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. MODERATE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE GULF N OF 27N WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 40 KT. AT THE SURFACE A 1019 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 26N87W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY E. THE GULF IS VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION EXCEPT ALONG THE SW FLORIDA COAST NEAR NAPLES.

CARIBBEAN SEA... GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF 13N W OF 70W WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THIS AREA. BROAD RIDGING AT THE UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 17N E OF 68W. EXCEPT FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN THE BASIN IS VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.


...HISPANIOLA...

THE AREA IS AT THE SOUTHERN PART OF A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 25N75W. EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE ISLAND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 25N75W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LOCATED W OF 70W. A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...8 TO 10 DEGREES IN DIAMETER...IS CENTERED NEAR 26N63W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. WINDS ARE STRONGEST ON THE W SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND MEASURE AS HIGH AS 50 TO 60 KT. ANOTHER WEAKER MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS POSITIONED NEAR 31N46W AND IS MOVING S ABOUT 10 KT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS LOCATED N OF 28N E OF 42W. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC S OF ABOUT 24N TO THE EQUATOR E OF 40W INTO AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N58W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N27W TO 24N43W. A 1019 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 27N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ CAB

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