Home


000
AXNT20 KNHC 011729
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1200 UTC MONDAY MORNING. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL RESUME AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 04N06W SW TO 00N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 03S20W TO 04S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 04S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 175 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF 17W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-04N BETWEEN 06W-16W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST TO NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE GULF WITH EAST TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT E OF 94W. A 1019 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE TX COAST NEAR 28N96W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 29N90W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SSE FROM THE LOW AND ACROSS THE SW GULF TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE E OF THE LOW AND STATIONARY FRONT. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH PATCHES OF FOG ARE OVER THE N GULF FROM 28N TO THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 84W AND 95W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW TO THE N GULF COAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING OVER THE NW GULF AND ALONG THE COAST FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF TO THE W FL PANHANDLE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN. PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM 16N88W TO 11N62W INCLUDING JAMAICA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS WHICH SUPPORTS CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COASTS TO 31N80W TO 28N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1027 MB LOW NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS SW TO 31N63W TO 29N66W TO 28N71W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES IS PRODUCING 15 TO 20 KT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF 32N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL ZONE. THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE E OVER THE SW N ATLC. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

Home