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AXNT20 KNHC 310002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS ALONG 31N77W TO 30N80W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO START TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING HOURS N OF 30N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN...PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST TO TIGHTEN IN THE SW CARIBBEAN LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE FORCE WINDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FROM 10.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 9 TO 12 FT. GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AROUND 1200 UTC SATURDAY...AND RESUME AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING FOR A PERIOD OF SIX HOURS. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 08N13W TO 03N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 42W...THEN SW TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 28W AND 43W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 74W AND BASE ALONG 30N SUPPORTS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NW ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S-SW CROSSING CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THEN THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 27N82W TO 25N91W TO MATAMOROS MEXICO. THE FRONT CUT ACROSS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI EXTENDING INTO THE ENTIRE GULF. CONTINENTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE LIGHTER WINDS RANGING FROM 10-15 KT ARE S OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S-SE TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT NW TO SOUTHERN TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS RIDGE WILL DEEPEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING...THUS INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE FORCE WINDS EARLY SATURDAY ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT ALSO COVERS PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC IS SUPPORTING NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE NW BASIN WHILE TRADES OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE NW FLOW IS CONVERGING ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA WHERE A MOIST AIRMASS ENHANCES RAINSHOWERS EXTENDING WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL ATLC WATERS CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS.


...HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL ATLC WATERS CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT NORTHERN WATERS. AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC WATERS...THE WESTWARD MOVING AIRMASS WILL STALL IN THE REGION ENHANCING SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 74W AND BASE ALONG 30N SUPPORTS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NW ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 30N73W SW TO EASTERN CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO START TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING HOURS N OF 30N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N53W SW TO 21N62W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM E OF FRONT N OF 21N. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL STALL TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE DURING SAT MORNING HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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