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AXNT20 KNHC 211158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 6N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N20W TO 4N35W 5N40W AND 5N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 9W AND 24W...AND FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W AND 50W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF 31N77W 26N90W 23N98W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE COVER THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 31N77W 23N98W LINE.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KXIH... KVBS...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KATP...KIPN...AND KIKT...AND KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...AREAS OF RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG COVER THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN GULF SHORES ALABAMA...AND IN PENSACOLA FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE FORT MYERS FLORIDA METROPOLITAN AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED IN NAPLES FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED FROM HOMESTEAD FLORIDA TO FORT LAUDERDALE.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 32N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N60W TO 30N65W 27N70W...TO THE BAHAMAS AND ANDROS ISLAND...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N81W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 21N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 21N84W TO 19N86W TO 16N88W IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N SOUTHWARD TO HONDURAS FROM 85W WESTWARD TO LAND. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI- LAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 26N70W 23N80W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 32N53W 23N80W LINE.


...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N64W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N64W CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N IN VENEZUELA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 56W AND 71W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W EASTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 29N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N79W...ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 66W AND 84W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.78 IN HAVANA CUBA...0.87 IN CURACAO...0.40 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.15 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA... BEYOND 86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN OF WESTERN PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA BETWEEN 81W AND 86W.


...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N79W...ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N64W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N64W CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N IN VENEZUELA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 56W AND 71W. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 17N79W ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS MERGING WITH EAST-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N64W CYCLONIC CENTER...AND THEN MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE APPEARS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BETWEEN THE 14N63W CYCLONIC CENTER AND JAMAICA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AS THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO A POSITION THAT IS TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- CUBA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.


...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CANARY ISLAND 15N28W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N20W...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND 13N30W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 13N30W 16N40W AND 18N44W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N15W IN THE CANARY ISLANDS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE INLAND AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 7W AND 15W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 21N NORTHWARD BETWEEN LAND AND 25W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.35 IN BERMUDA.

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N45W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 70W...AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N57W 26N74W... BEYOND 23N80W AT THE COAST OF CUBA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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