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AXNT20 KNHC 021044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AT 02/0600 UTC...THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATED THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE STRENGTHENED TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. AS OF 02/0900 UTC...THE LOCATION OF DOLLY CENTER IS NEAR 22.6N 94.8W...HOLDING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WNW AT 11 KT AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED TSTMS IS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 92W-95W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS AROUND 350 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N30W TO 09N30W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. ENHANCED METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR SURROUNDING THIS WAVE WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 28W- 32W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N47W TO 10N50W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS ALSO SURROUNDING THIS WAVE. ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 47W-50W.

A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N62W TO 12N63W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. SOME DRY SAHARAN AIR IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS SUPPORTING A FEW CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 62W-65W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N73W TO 12N74W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 07N22W TO 09N30W TO 06N33W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N33W TO 11N49W TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N62W. THE ONLY CONVECTION PRESENT NEAR THESE FEATURES IS RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SE GULF. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCLUDING FOR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT PREVAIL. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN SPECIAL FEATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER A STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR PREVAILS ACROSS THE SAME AREA HINDERING THE FORMATION OF DEEP CONVECTION. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 10-15 KT CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS JUST ENTERED THE BASIN THIS MORNING BRINGING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO THE AREA TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS TODAY.


...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR PREVAILS ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY LEFT BY THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE AND THE PROXIMITY OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 29N BETWEEN 67W- 80W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ ERA

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