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AXNT20 KNHC 312357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 21W/22W FROM 10N-19N MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 50W/51W FROM 12N-21N MOVING W-NW NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS ALSO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N78W TO 10N80W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY OVER JAMAICA.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N16W TO E OF THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 15N20W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 14N23W THEN THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N34W ALONG 9N42W TO 8N52W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N E OF 24W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 35W-38W ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1009 MB LOW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 35W-50W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FAR SE CONUS ANCHORED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CONUS SUPPORTING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1012 LOW OVER W GEORGIA ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR PENSACOLA INTO THE GULF WATERS THEN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA ALONG 29N92W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR GALVESTON. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH ALONG 28N90W TO 26N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 29N88W TO 27N95W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 23N EXCEPT N OF THE FRONT WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N92W TO 18N94W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A 1017 MB HIGH IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE N GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA... A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 17N85W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 82W-85W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW E OF THE BAHAMAS TO OVER HISPANIOLA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI AND THE FAR W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING TOWARD THE GULF OF GONAVE. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA MOVING S INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-15N W OF 77W TO OVER NICARAGUA. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SUN.


...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS HAITI AND THE FAR W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING TOWARD THE GULF OF GONAVE THIS EVENING BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ISLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN WILL MEANDER WESTWARD. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AGAIN SAT NIGHT LESSENING THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N74W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SW OVER HISPANIOLA AND N TO BEYOND 32N74W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N W OF 78W TO OVER FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 24N76W TO 32N79W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 32N35W AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N60W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS WESTWARD ACROSS S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT N REACHING TO S FLORIDA ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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