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AXNT20 KNHC 291739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1011 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N39W AND IS MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 38W-43W. BANDING FEATURES SURROUND THE CENTER EXCEPT OVER THE NE QUADRANT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N21W TO 07N22W AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHILE S OF 11N THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 17W-25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED W OF THE DISTURBANCE DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N42W TO 09N42W AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. MOST OF THE WAVE IS WITHIN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH THE AXIS ALONG 95W S OF 22N AND CONTINUES SOUTHWARD TO 13N. THE WAVE IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. THERE IS MINIMAL CONVECTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ALSO OVER MEXICO WITHIN 2 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 14N17W TO 07N26W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N39W TO 07N45W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N45W TO 09N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N30W TO 07N25W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... AN EAST-WEST MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH THE AXIS ALONG 29N. RESULTING LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS COVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE GULF. THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY S OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER SE GEORGIA COAST TO JUST S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. A TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 28.5N80.5W TO 28N87.5W TO 29N94W WITH SCATTERED TSTMS...SOME STRONG...LOCATED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A 1018 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N92.5W.

CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 76W. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 70W DUE TO A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 25N65W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF THE BASIN. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES COVER THE CARIBBEAN.


...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED RECENTLY OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAIN AREAS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 25N65W...ABOUT 8 DEGREES IN DIAMETER...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY W AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE FAR NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 29N W OF 75W. ANOTHER MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 30N50W...NEARLY STATIONARY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS LOCATED N OF 28N BETWEEN 20W AND 38W. A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 22N40W. MODERATE EASTERLIES ALOFT ARE OVER THE TROPICS S OF 18N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W AND 50W WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 40 KT. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 31N79W TO 28.5N80.5W. SCATTERED TSTMS...SOME STRONG...ARE LOCATED NW OF A LINE FROM 32N70W TO 24N80W. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH 33N76.5W TO THE LOWER SE GEORGIA COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ CAB

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