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000
AXNT20 KNHC 050608
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N78W TO S FLORIDA AT 28N80W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 23N84W WILL MOVE E. THE 12 HOUR FORECAST IS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO 23N80W. EXPECT N OF 28N WITHIN 300 NM E OF FRONT S TO SW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH 06 HOURS LATER OR 1800 UTC THIS EVENING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 04N16W TO 01N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 01N35W AND EXTENDS TO 01N47W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N48W TO 00N48W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE TROUGH AND EXTENDS TO BRAZIL AT 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N- 06N BETWEEN 08W-28W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 23N84W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM E OF FRONT. A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N95W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. AN AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF FROM TAMPICO MEXICO S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO S OF 18N. 10-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF FRONT. 20-25 KT SW FLOW IS E OF FRONT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 82W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 09 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE OUT OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 23N84W TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W TO N GUATEMALA AT 16N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS...S GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 09N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER NORTH COLOMBIA. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF VENEZUELA. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO INLAND OVER COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO E HONDURAS WITH CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ADVECT OVER THE ISLAND DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC AT 31N78W TO S FLORIDA AT 28N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC N OF 22N BETWEEN 71W-79W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N41W. A 1009 MB LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 35N14W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND REACH 31N69W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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