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000
AXNT20 KNHC 261133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE WARNING IN W ATLANTIC...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM 31N76W TO 28N78W TO 25N81W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 27N W OF FRONT WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 13 FT. A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT BY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 09N14W TO 02N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 00N35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 00N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-04N BETWEEN 16W-29W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE GULF GIVING A W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF FROM 26N96W TO 30N85W. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS AHEAD OF IT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS N FLORIDA AND E GULF FROM 26N86W TO 31N82W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM S OF THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE SW...A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THE W GULF CENTERED NEAR 22N96W. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE ENHANCING CONVECTION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE BASIN WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW ATLANTIC ACROSS CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY ALONG 21N78W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER VENEZUELA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE ATLANTIC. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W-75W WHERE A FRESH BREEZE PREVAILS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING QUICKLY WITH THE TRADES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT.


...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN 24 HOURS. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLANTIC. IT BEGINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE SW ATLANTIC NEAR 22N77W TO 27N64W. AT THIS POINT IT TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES TO 31N57W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THESE BOUNDARIES. TO THE E...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N46W TO 31N41W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC AS A 1037 SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 41N19W EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE E ACROSS THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA COASTS REACHING THE W ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. FOR MORE DETAILS REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ ERA

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