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AXNT20 KNHC 051108
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED AT 05/0900 UTC IS NEAR 23.2N 41.0W. FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 290 DEGREES...10 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM FRED ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM FRED ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A RADIUS OF 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11.5N. THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. IT IS LIKELY THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CHANCE FOR SUCH DEVELOPMENT IS HIGH...AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 23W AND 27W.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N ALONG THE WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 29W AND 37W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N57W 14N58W 09N59W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THIS WAVE IS IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF AN AREA OF PRE-EXISTING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N69W...WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM OFF THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 20N69W CYCLONIC CENTER TO NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA/NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. THE TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD BE REACHING HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR LESS.

A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS 95W/96W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 22W/23W TROPICAL WAVE...TO THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 31W/32W TROPICAL WAVE...TO 10N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N38W TO 09N46W...AND TO 08N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 11W AND 14W...AND FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 46W AND 47W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 330 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 11N15W 09N30W 08N40W 08N50W AND 06N54W.


...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N70W TO 27N72W...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N86W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N69W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N72W... ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO 26N79W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD FROM 91W EASTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N NORTHWARD FROM 93W EASTWARD IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM 69W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N89W IN BELIZE. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 13N AND EL SALVADOR TO 22N BETWEEN 85W AND 93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 10N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO 20N IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BETWEEN 84W AND 92W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N103W ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO FROM 25N SOUTHWARD.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA...THAT IS FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD.

A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION THAT IS ABOUT HISPANIOLA AND THE SECTION THAT IS ABOUT TROPICAL WAVES...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 65W/66W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N89W IN BELIZE. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 13N AND EL SALVADOR TO 22N BETWEEN 85W AND 93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 10N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO 20N IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BETWEEN 84W AND 92W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH AND THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE BELIZE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE 15N82W 09N76W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 05/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.69 IN BERMUDA...0.51 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.11 IN GUADELOUPE.


...HISPANIOLA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF AN AREA OF PRE-EXISTING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N69W...WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM OFF THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 20N69W CYCLONIC CENTER TO NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA/NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. THE TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD BE REACHING HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR LESS.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...IN PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI...THE LAST OBSERVATION FOR 05/0000 UTC AND EARLIER OBSERVATIONS...SHOWED SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO...IN SANTIAGO...AND IN PUERTO PLATA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS...BRINGING ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW TO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THANKS TO THE 20N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD... BEING REPLACED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH FOR 6 TO 12 HOURS. SOUTHERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WIND FLOW WILL BE RELATED TO A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB STARTS WITH NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF OF MEXICO-TO- CUBA-TO HISPANIOLA RIDGE. THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY WITH A SHORTER-WAVELENGTH RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THIS WIND REGIME LASTS FOR 12 HOURS OR SO. A SITUATION OF DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW DEVELOPS AND LASTS FOR 6 HOURS OR SO... GIVING WAY TO HISPANIOLA NEARLY BEING IN A COL AT THE 24-HOUR POINT IN THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FOR 6 HOURS OR SO. SOUTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY CONTINUES FOR THE LAST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM FRED.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL STORM FRED.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N61W TO 26N67W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 65W.

A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N49W...TO 26N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 29N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 43W AND 46W.

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N30W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W...AWAY FROM T.S. FRED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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