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AXNT20 KNHC 010601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W SW TO 02S19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 04S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 04S37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 05W AND 15W...FROM 07S TO 02N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W AND FROM 02S TO 04N W OF 35W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE NE CONUS COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KT E OF 95W...HIGHEST ON THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 26N WHERE THERE IS A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF...A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N96W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 23N95W TO 20N93W. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 24N96W SW TO THE NE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH MOIST AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW N ATLC BY SURFACE NE TO E FLOW SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 25N. THE GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES INDICATE MEDIUM TO HIGH FOG PROBABILITIES W OF 94W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 88W. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE GULF REPORT FOG CONDITIONS N OF 27N W OF 89W. THE FRONT AND THE LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS. RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN AND ENHANCE PASSING SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO...MONA PASSAGE...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 15 KT PREVAIL. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.


...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER ISLAND TONIGHT...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION IS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS...EXTENDING FROM 30N66W SW TO 27N72W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE AZORES HIGH ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB CENTER NEAR 34N25W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. WITH LITTLE TO NONE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SW N ATLC SUNDAY MORNING
...LEAVING SURFACE RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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