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000
AXNT20 KNHC 250603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N17W TO 03N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 03N23W AND CONTINUES ALONG 01S35W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 19W-31W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-03N W OF 44W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT AND ADVECTS MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC INTO THE BASIN. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM ILLINOIS SW TO NW LOUISIANA TO EASTERN TEXAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 86W. ADVECTION FOG IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 93W. OTHERWISE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 26N83W. THIS SURFACE PATTERN IS PROVIDING THE GULF WITH E-SE WIND FLOW RANGING FROM 5-15 KT. THE TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN WILL EXTEND ALONG THE N GULF COASTLINE AS A STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATING BY FRI NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN NIGHT...HOWEVER A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE MAX WINDS TO 20 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA... ALOFT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER E VENEZUELA COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND PROVIDES WESTERLY FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW TO INLAND HISPANIOLA ENHANCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM OF THE COAST OF PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BOUNDARY WITH COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE...A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTS TRADES OF 10-15 KT WITH EXCEPTION OF THE COLOMBIAN COASTAL WATERS WHERE WINDS ARE UP TO 20 KT. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED DURING SAT AND SUN WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.


...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING GENERATED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 28N49W SW TO 22N61W 19N69W TO CENTRAL HAITI NEAR 18N72W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE ISLAND AND DISSIPATE LATE FRI MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLAND MAINLY THROUGH LATE SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE CONUS SE INTO THE SW N ATLC WATERS AND SUPPORTS A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 30N72W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 41N56W SUPPORTS A BROAD ARE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 41N48W TO 30N55W 25N68W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N49W SW TO 22N62W TO CENTRAL HAITI NEAR 18N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 38W-53W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 21N- 25N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE AZORES. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND DISSIPATE SAT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE W ATLC FRI AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SAT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE W ATLC N OF 29N SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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