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000
AXNT20 KNHC 080604 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC STORM WARNING...A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 986 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 33N75W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 30N67W SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EAST OF IT SUPPORTS STORM-FORCE WINDS N OF 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE HAPPENING N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT TO 78W AND E OF THE FRONT TO 67W. SEAS IN THE AREA OF STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 16 TO 22 FT AND FROM 12 TO 17 FT IN THE GALE-FORCE WINDS REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW STORM-FORCE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES NE...HOWEVER GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

ATLC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE SW N ATLC AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 29N W OF 77W. GALE- FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL IN THE REGION FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE BASIN AND GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP N OF THE FRONT E OF 90W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE TUE MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 06N10W TO 03N15W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N31W TO 01S46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01N-02N BETWEEN 20W- 24W AND FROM 05S TO 03N W OF 33W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 25N92W COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN AND PROVIDES VARIABLE LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND FLOW. WATER VAPOR...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE UPPER LEVELS ALL THE WAY TO THE SURFACE...WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES WILL DISSIPATE IN THE WESTERN GULF LATER THIS MORNING AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTHERN WATERS DURING MON NIGHT HOURS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP W OF THE FRONT E OF 90W MON NIGHT...CONTINUING TO TUE MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 986 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 33N75W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO 30N67W SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO 20N76W TO 16N81W TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA COASTAL WATERS NEAR 11N83W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT S OF 19N TO 87W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE. A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED SW OF HISPANIOLA AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT PROVIDE STABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATER THIS MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND START DISSIPATING TUE.


...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT MAINTAINS FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN CUBA WILL MOVE TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATER THIS MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL THROUGH TUE. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 986 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 33N75W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 30N67W SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EAST OF IT SUPPORTS STORM-FORCE WINDS N OF 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE HAPPENING N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT TO 78W AND E OF THE FRONT TO 67W. SEAS IN THE AREA OF STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 16 TO 22 FT AND FROM 12 TO 17 FT IN THE GALE-FORCE WINDS REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW STORM-FORCE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES NE...HOWEVER GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E TO NEAR 60W MON NIGHT...STALLING S OF 23N AND OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC LATE MON NIGHT...GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ RAMOS

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