Home


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271904
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W UNTIL 1800 UTC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE BACK TO GALE FORCE ON 0600 UTC SATURDAY UNTIL 1800 UTC SATURDAY...AND AGAIN ON 0600 UTC SUNDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

A GALE CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO...DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 8N13W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-4N BETWEEN 1W- 36W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE AFRICAN COAST E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US WITH SW FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE GULF. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MID WEST EXTENDS S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC AND THE FL STRAITS NEAR 24N81W TO 22N87W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING S FL. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE ENTIRE FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND WILL THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE BASIN WHILE DISSIPATING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 42 HOURS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. 15-30 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS GENERATING PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 15N ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAIL IN THE UPPER LEVELS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HAITI...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND IN CONTINUED EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N70W TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 25N80W...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. FARTHER EAST...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A LARGE 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST SE OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF 32N. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLC IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS JUST OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE BY SAT AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND THEN THE SHEAR LINE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

Home