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AXNT20 KNHC 021730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS CENTERED NEAR 23.4N 96.5W AT 02/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 74 NM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 14 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. PRESENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 92W-98W. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N30W TO 9N31W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOIST AREA FROM 3N-16N E OF 33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N47W TO 10N51W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA FROM 6N-19N BETWEEN 46W-55W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 48W-53W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N64W TO 10N65W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 66W- 69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N74W TO 10N76W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 10N26W TO 5N34W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N34W TO 10N49W AND THEN FROM 11N53W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N63W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 9W-16W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 28W-39W AND FROM 9-13N BETWEEN 53W-60W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS LOCATED OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 32N. 10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS COVERS THE GULF NE OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER S LOUISIANA ... THE CENTRAL GULF...THE SE GULF...AND S FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 28N91W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER BAHAMAS...CENTERED NEAR 25N75W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THIS LOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA. EXPECT DOLLY TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION MAY HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAY HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF STATES FROM LA TO FL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 10N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE LOCATED S OF 11N BETWEEN 74W-82W DUE TO MONSOON TROUGH ACTIVITY. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS HAS A TROUGH AXIS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO HONDURAS AND IS PRODUCING CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WINWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N60W IS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W INTO THE AREA.


...HISPANIOLA...

MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW AND APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N57W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 26N34W. A SMALL 1014MB LOW IS WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 22W-25W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 65W-78W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA/LATTO

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