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AXNT20 KNHC 121154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SAT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 05N10W AND CONTINUES TO 02N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01N40W TO NORTHERN BRAZIL COASTAL WATERS NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 0N TO 06N ALONG BOTH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER E WATERS NEAR 25N87W. LIGHT AND GENTLE VARIABLE WIND COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT OFF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WHERE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED. WATER VAPOR AND CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY SAT WHEN THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES DISSIPATES OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS. THEN...AN ELONGATED RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR NORTHERN IOWA WILL PROVIDE NE TO E FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER NW HISPANIOLA THAT STALLS AND STARTS TO DISSIPATE SW TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA NE COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN BASIN SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA. FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW IS W OF THE FRONT TO 80W. WITH HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN...THE PRES GRADIENT HAS TIGHTEN IN THE SW BASIN. THIS IS LEADING TO GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SAT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE IN THE REMAINDER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69W AND 80W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT AS A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

A COLD FRONT OVER SW N ATLC WATERS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW ISLAND AND STALLS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO NICARAGUA NE COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA TODAY. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N57W SW TO NW HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA NE COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HAPPENING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW N ATLC...W OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER BASIN E OF THE FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N29W. THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT E TO THE CENTRAL ATLC TODAY WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC WATERS SAT MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ RAMOS

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