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AXNT20 KNHC 081117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC STORM WARNING...A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 979 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 33N72W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 31N65W SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NORTHERN COSTA RICA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EAST OF IT SUPPORTS STORM-FORCE WINDS N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE HAPPENING N OF 28N BETWEEN 67W AND 76W AND N OF 29N WITHIN 60 NM E OF FRONT. SEAS IN THE AREA OF STORM- FORCE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 32 FT AND FROM 18 TO 25 FT IN THE GALE-FORCE WINDS REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW STORM- FORCE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW PRES CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE NE...HOWEVER GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

ATLC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE SW N ATLC TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N WITHIN 120 E OF FRONT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL IN THE REGION THROUGH TUE NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON TONIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE BASIN AND GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP N OF 27N E OF 90W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE TUE MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 04N08W TO 03N19W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N30W TO 02S50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03S TO 01N BETWEEN 28W AND 41W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 22N93W COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN AND PROVIDES VARIABLE LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND FLOW. WATER VAPOR...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE UPPER LEVELS ALL THE WAY TO THE SURFACE...WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES WILL DISSIPATE IN THE WESTERN GULF LATER THIS MORNING AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP N OF 27N E OF 90W TONIGHT...CONTINUING TO EARLY TUE MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 979 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 31N65W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO 31N65W SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NORTHERN COSTA RICA. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT S OF 17N TO 85W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE. A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED SW OF HISPANIOLA AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT PROVIDE STABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT IN THE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO START DISSIPATING LATE TUE.


...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT MAINTAINS FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...A FORMER COLD FRONT HAS STALLED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STALLED THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 979 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 33N72W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 31N65W SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NORTHERN COSTA RICA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EAST OF IT SUPPORTS STORM- FORCE WINDS N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE HAPPENING N OF 28N BETWEEN 67W AND 76W AND N OF 29N WITHIN 60 NM E OF FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW STORM-FORCE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW PRES CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE NE...HOWEVER GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E TO NEAR 60W TONIGHT...STALLING S OF 23N AND OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC LATE TONIGHT...GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ RAMOS

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