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000
AXNT20 KNHC 230523
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED 30 NM MILES N OF THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N69W...MOVING WNW AT 15-20 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 67W-71W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 16N-26N BETWEEN 64W-73W. THIS LOW HAS BEEN GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN THESE ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES ALONG OR NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. INTERESTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 25N34W TO 10N34W MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME AS DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ARE IN ITS ENVIRONMENT N OF 21N.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES TO 12N20W TO 9N40W. AN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N40W TO 8N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 24W- 27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 30W-52W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ON THE N GULF NEAR 29N91W. SURFACE OBS AND SCATTEROMETER WINDS SHOW ANTICYCLONIC WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT EVIDENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 24N. 10-15 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE S OF 24N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS W OF FLORIDA FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 83W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM S OF 26N BETWEEN 90W-97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE SW GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE NE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC PRODUCING A LARGE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE CENTER OF THE LOW...10-15 KT CYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 89W-92W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 12N BETWEEN 73W-85W MAINLY DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 13N86W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NE OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 80W-83W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N63W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH RESIDUAL CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HISPANIOLA...

THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC PRESENTLY HAS THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. EXPECT THE AREA OF HEAVY CONVECTION TO MOVE W TO INCLUDE HAITI OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH MUDSLIDES AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION N OF HISPANIOLA... SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH CENTER NEAR 33N24W WITH RIDGING TO NEAR 30N55W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N63W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE IN THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ ERA

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