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000
AXNT20 KNHC 270548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1014 mb low pressure is centered near 27N71W and is currently interacting with a broad upper-level trough, supporting scattered moderate convection northeast of the low from 28N-30N between 68W-71W as well as near Jamaica, the southern Bahamas, eastern Cuba, and Haiti. A surface trough extends from 31N67w, to the low, to 23N73W. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for a tropical or subtropical cyclone to form later today or Saturday while this system moves west- northwestward or northwestward toward the southeastern United States coast. There is a high chance for this system to develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. For more information on this system, please refer to the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOAT/ABNT20.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is emerging off of the coast of West Africa with the axis extending from 14N15W to 07N15W. The wave is a well- defined 700 mb trough axis as seen in the GFS analysis and the couple of West African rawindsondes. The wave has a prominent maximum of moisture along its axis, as depicted by the total precipitable water imagery. No significant deep convection is present currently associated with the wave.

A tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic with axis that extends from 10N47W to 01N48W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave has become difficult to track and only is weakly apparent in the SUNY-Albany tropical wave diagnostics at 700 mb. No significant deep convection is present currently associated with the wave.

A third tropical wave is located near the Windward Islands, extending from 14N59W to 09N61W. The wave is associated with a maximum of moisture and surface to 850 mb cyclonic curvature of the winds, though it is not apparent at 700 mb. Scattered moderate convection may be associated with the wave over northern Colombia and Guyana.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across the tropical Atlantic starting at around 07N17W to 04N23W. The ITCZ begins near 04N23W and continues to 05N43W. An area of scattered moderate convection prevails within 60 nm of the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ from 18W to 25W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis extends from a 1019 mb high near 28N84W in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to the Texas coast. Winds are generally northeast to easterly 10-15 kt in the eastern Gulf and southeast to southerly 15-20 kt in the western Gulf, peaking at 20-25 kt along the Texas coast and the northwestern Yucatan coast. Only widely scattered showers are occurring within 120 nm of the Texas and southwest Florida coasts. Winds will further diminish over the next two days across the Gulf. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over the northwestern Gulf today, but less likely on Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough that extends into the western Caribbean is helping to induce scattered moderate convection near Jamaica, the southern Bahamas, eastern Cuba, and Haiti. A 1010 mb low that anchors the Northeast Pacific's Monsoon Trough is located near 10N81W in the southwestern Caribbean. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of the low. The usual robust north-to-south pressure gradient over the Caribbean is substantially reduced, and the resulting tradewinds are only 10-15 kt across the Caribbean, except 20 kt near the coast of Colombia. The combination of the upper trough, abundant moisture, and the approaching easterly wave currently near the Windward Islands may produced scattered to numerous moderate convection with isolated to scattered deep convection over the central Caribbean including the Greater Antilles during the next two days. The tradewinds will remain relatively weak through Saturday.

HISPANIOLA...

An upper-level trough that extends into the western Caribbean is helping to induce scattered moderate convection over Haiti. The combination of the upper trough, abundant moisture, and the approaching easterly wave currently near the Windward Islands may produced scattered to numerous moderate convection with isolated to scattered deep convection over Hispaniola during the next two days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for details on a low near 27N71W. Elsewhere, surface ridging extends across the North Atlantic from near the coast of North Carolina to a 1025 mb high centered near 32N49W to 33N32W. The resulting modest pressure gradient equatorward of the ridge is generally producing 10-20 kt tradewind easterlies. Numerous cold, high clouds are observed between 10N-15N east of 45W. However, it is likely that few showers are occurring below this primarily cirrus cloudiness. Continued relatively weak tradewinds and a lack of large-scale convection are expected during the next couple of days.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

CWL

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