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AXNT20 KNHC 251738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 05N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N21W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-07N BETWEEN 11W-16W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 45W-52W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 31N92W. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS OR PORTIONS OF COASTAL TEXAS...A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE VALUES EXISTS ACROSS THE NW AND WEST-CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THE MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS IN PLACE OVER LOUISIANA ARE GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 91W-97W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF SE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THIS MID-LEVEL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ROUNDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N80W. SOUTHERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL INTRODUCE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY MONDAY AND QUICKLY LIFT NORTHWARD BY LATE MONDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH A SECONDARY FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE NW GULF COAST EARLY TUESDAY. STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N80W WITH THE BASIN E OF 78W UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION REMAINS VERY DRY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS... SLIGHTLY STRONGER BREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 20N FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 75W PROVIDING FOR VERY SIMILAR TRANQUIL SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.


...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN DRY AIR ALOFT. THESE OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 20N FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 75W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COMPLEX MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND NEAR 43N66W WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE IN THE VICINITY OF 36N58W. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...THEY SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W TO 26N73W. THE FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AS UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 30N BETWEEN 51W-57W. FURTHERMORE...TO THE SOUTHEAST...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 28N51W SUPPORTS A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N47W AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SW TO 27N52W. THE FRONT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT W- SW TO 25N60W THEN TO 24N69W. GIVEN A MORE REASONABLE AMOUNT OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A LARGER AREA WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...AN OCCLUDED 1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N28W AND SUPPORTS A TRIPLE POINT 1016 MB LOW NEAR 32N26W AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ANALYZED SW TO 27N32W...THEN NW AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 29N37W...AND FINALLY AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED 1008 MB LOW NEAR 34N47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ HUFFMAN

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