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AXNT20 KNHC 032338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W FROM 04/0600 UTC TO 04/1800 UTC. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE W ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE AND THE 1006 MB LOW CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N33W TO 10N35W MOVING W AT 10 KT. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A 700 MB TROUGHING ALONG 35W. DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN HIGH MOISTURE MAINLY S OF 13N... LITTLE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WAVE DUE TO A BROAD SAHARAN DUST AIRMASS THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS HOWEVER FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 44W-46W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N44W TO 10N44W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 35W AND 45W. TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THIS WAVE WITH SAHARAN DUST ALSO PREVAILING. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT 20N74W TO N COLOMBIA AT 10N75W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INVERTED V CLOUD PATTERN S OF HISPANIOLA. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W TO 12N320W TO 14N27W TO 13N33W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N47W TO 10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER W AFRICA FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 10W-17W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE GEORGIA NEAR 31N81.5W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 80W-86W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF FROM 29N91W TO 28N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 90W-94W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER S FLORIDA, W CUBA, AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE SW GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 30N93W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER N FLORIDA ENHANCING CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DEVELOPING GALE IS OVER THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AND OVER WESTERN JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N79W ENHANCING CONVECTION. SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES MOVING W.


...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ISLAND WITH AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG 75W. A SAHARAN AIRMASS PREVAILS BEHIND THIS WAVE THEREFORE... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW WILL SOON EXIT SE GEORGIA AND MOVE NE INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N65W TO 26N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 65W-70W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N55W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE N FL COAST. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AS IT MOVES NW OVER THE W ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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