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AXNT20 KNHC 010604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS JUST E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 22W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS. METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHERE NO CONVECTION IS OBSERVED. HOWEVER...SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 18W AND 25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 52W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF IT. THE WAVE IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST COVER THE ENTIRE WAVE ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 80W... MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 17N.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N16W TO E OF THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 15N20W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N35W SW TO 08N49W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N50W AND CONTINUES TO COASTAL GUYANA NEAR 07N57W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 32W-39W AND FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 41W-53W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE A 1012 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 29N86W ALONG WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N86W TO THE LOW TO 28N90W TO 29N95W. A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE BASIN BEING GENERATED BY THE SE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 26N E OF 93W. OVER THE NW BASIN...A 1015 MB HIGH PREVAILS. A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SAME REGION ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE REFERENCED ABOVE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-27N W OF 95W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE SE GULF WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED. WINDS ARE VARIABLE AND LIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN...EXCEPT THE NE GULF WHERE WINDS ARE FROM THE SW RANGING FROM 15 KT TO 20 KT. FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE N GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WHICH ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS BEING ANALYZED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 80W...WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF ITS AXIS. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. EVEN THAT MODERATE MOISTURE IS OBSERVED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE CARIBBEAN...STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORT STABLE CONDITIONS. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 69W AND 77W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE W OF 77W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA SAT NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SUN.


...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...NO CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SAT MORNING AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST START TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SE CONUS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THIS REGION AND A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 75W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION SEE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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