Home


000
AXNT20 KNHC 260003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1003 MB LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N71.5W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO 30N65W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 24N75W TO 22N78.5W. A GALE IS WITHIN 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW...AND WITHIN 60 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW. THE LOW IS FORECAST BE AT 31N62W IN 24 HOURS WITH WINDS BELOW GALE. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 17N45W TO 6N45W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE TO BE EMBEDDED IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-17N BETWEEN 37W- 50W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 14N54W TO 8N55W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE TO BE LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N- 14N BETWEEN 50W-58W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 17N73W TO 11N74W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND IS MOSTLY VOID OF CONVECTION. THIS WAVE WILL BE ABSORBED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BY THE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM PRESENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N17W AND CONTINUES TO 10N19W TO 8N23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 8N23W TO 6N38W TO 8N43W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 21W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 31W-35W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS AT 30N95W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE TO S ALABAMA... AND FOR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF... RESULTING IN CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N83W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS NE TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 83W- 88W...AND OVER E CUBA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 75W-79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER N VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS DIGGING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ALSO CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 16N81W WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO BE ABSORBED BY THE LOW.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE ISLAND FROM THE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT APPROACHES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SPECIAL FEATURE GALE LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 40N33W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N45W. A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N29W MOSTLY VOID OF CONVECTION AND DISSIPATING. EXPECT THE FRONT OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

Home