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AXNT20 KNHC 031800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING FROM 12 TO 16 FT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 23W FROM 05N TO 16N...MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...THE METEOSAT SAL TRACKING...PSEUDO-NATURAL AND DUST IMAGERY SHOW THAT SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 39W
...MOVING W AT 5 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. SIMILAR TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE...METEOSAT SAL TRACKING...PSEUDO-NATURAL AND DUST IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 66W
...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW AND METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR HINDERS CONVECTION.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N26W AND CONTINUES TO 07N36W...RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 06N41W TO NORTHERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 02N50W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 06N TO 14N E OF 20W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

N-NE WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NEW MEXICO COVERS THE NW GULF AND THE FAR SW BASIN. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND PROVIDES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SW GULF THAT ALONG WITH MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORT A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 24N W OF 94W. A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW BASIN SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N90W TO 18N93W LACKING CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER COASTAL WATERS OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN PENINSULA TO NICARAGUA EPAC COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-26N E OF 87W. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ACROSS THE ATLC OCEAN CONTINUE TO EXTENDS AN AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GREAT PORTIONS OF THE GULF. SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT IS OVER THE W AND SE GULF WHILE VARIABLE LIGHT WIND PERSISTS OVER THE NE BASIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA...BUT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OFF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 66W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT S OF 15N THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SE BASIN...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR OVER THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS AHEAD OF THE WAVE EXTENDING W TO 86W...INCLUDING HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. ASIDE THE GALE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 82W ASSOCIATED WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FT. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MONDAY.


...HISPANIOLA...

SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND...THUS HINDERING CONVECTION BUT SUPPORTING HAZY CONDITIONS. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON WHEN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS BEING GENERATED BY THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS UPPER FEATURE FAVORS LIFTING OF MOIST AIR ADVECTED FROM THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 77W. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN N OF 18N. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N56W TO 26N53W THAT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FARTHER E FROM 27N43W TO 23N43W DEVOID OF CONVECTION. RIDGING WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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