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000
AXNT20 KNHC 230606 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W TO 7N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 5N30W TO 5N40W TO THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 17W AND 27W AS WELL AS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 26W AND 41W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CONUS TO THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 34N67W...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE E-NE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N85W TO 25N86W. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE W-NW GULF ALONG WITH INFLOW OF MOIST AIR FROM THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N E OF 91W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE...THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE SE GULF SUPPORTS E-SE WIND FLOW OF 20-25 KT E OF 88W. A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF 23N WEST OF 88W PROVIDES FOR E-SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEING ANALYZED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 93W ASSOCIATED WITH A SQUALL LINE ALONG 28N96W SW TO NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W AND THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 29N96W TO 28N91W. THESE FEATURES COINCIDES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE BASE OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. MOIST AIR BEING ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY SE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT FUELS THE CONVECTION IN THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE AND A COLD FRONT TO EMERGE FROM TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS N OF 14N. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 15-20 KT ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT PROVIDES LIGHTER WINDS ON THE NW CARIBBEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS.


...HISPANIOLA...

A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THAT ALONG WITH LIFTING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 14N E OF 72W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N55W SW TO 26N64W TO 24N72W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 120 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BEING ENHANCED BY A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE BASIN. ON THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1003 MB LOW IS NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF 14W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 20N. A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLC WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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