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000
AXNT20 KNHC 030555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 08N12W TO 03N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 03N18W AND EXTENDS TO 03N30W TO 02N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N42W TO 00N42W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02N44W TO BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-01S BETWEEN 18W- 37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 38W- 42W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W TO TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF FRONT. 10 KT SE TO S FLOW IS E OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 86W- 90W...AND N OF 26N BETWEEN 80W-86W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT TONIGHT IFR AND LIFR DUE TO FOG N OF 24N E OF FRONT. FINALLY EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SMOKE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 24N E OF FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 09N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA. NORTHERLY FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COSTA RICA...W NICARAGUA... W HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.

HISPANIOLA...

ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA W OF 80W N OF 27N DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N65W. ANOTHER 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE AZORES NEAR 39N27W. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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