000
AXNT20 KNHC 022305
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Nov 3 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave has its axis along 74W south of 22N, moving
westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 16N to 28N between 67W and 74W, enhanced by a stationary
front located just to the NW-N of the wave in the W Atlantic
waters.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues
southwestward to near 09N20W. The ITCZ then is analyzed from
09N20W to just NE of the coast of Brazil and French Guiana at
04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 12N,
and E of 34W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A weak 1016 mb low near 25N87W extends a cold front to near
20N97W. A stationary front is analyzed from the low to 23N82W. A
reinforcing cold front has entered the NW Gulf waters, extending
from 30N86W to 26N96W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
extend from the Florida Panhandle toward the Bay of Campeche,
owing to the influence of these fronts and an upper level trough
over the region. Near gale-force winds prevail in the areas of
convection, then fresh to strong NE winds are occurring behind
the low/front. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds persist
elsewhere. Moderate seas prevail to the N and W of the cold front
and slight seas prevail across the remainder of the basin.
For the forecast, the cold fronts and low will merge and the
resultant front is forecast to reach from near Fort Myers,
Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche early Mon morning, clearing
the basin Mon night. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to
locally rough seas follow the frontal boundary, and these marine
conditions will persist through Mon evening. High pressure will
then follow the front. The pressure gradient is forecast to
tighten across the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, on
Tue, supporting fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to locally
rough seas. The high pressure will shift eastward, and winds will
veer to the SE and S toward the end of the work-week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Refer to the section above for details on a tropical wave over the
central Caribbean including associated active convection.
A surface trough extends from the south-central coast of Cuba to
near 10N82W. This trough is likely interacting with the eastern
extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough which runs across the
SW Caribbean, resulting in scattered moderate to strong convection
S of 13N and W of 77W. Elsewhere, recent scatterometer data
indicates moderate to fresh trades across much of the central and
E Caribbean, with fresh to strong trades occurring S of 16N
between 65W and 75W. Moderate seas are across much of the central
and E Caribbean. Gentle to moderate NE winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail across much of the remaining basin.
For the forecast, the surface trough in the W Caribbean will
shift westward through Mon while dissipating. Fresh to strong E to
SE winds are in the wake of a tropical wave, currently moving
across the central Caribbean, with axis near 74W. Fresh to strong
trade winds and moderate to rough seas will dominate most of the
central Caribbean on Mon. A cold front will to move across the NW
Caribbean by Mon night into early Tue while the above mentioned
tropical wave is expected to merge with the frontal boundary.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from 31N45W to 30N65W to 22N79W.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring ahead of the front,
generally N of 22N and W of 62W. This convection is likely also
being enhanced by an upper level trough over the Gulf of America
and a tropical wave to the south of the area. In the eastern
Atlantic, an occluded low centered near 29N29W extends a cold
front from 31N26W to 21N34W. Scattered showers are noted in the
vicinity of this front. Latest ASCAT passes captured fresh to
strong N to NW winds to the N and W of the low, with fresh to
strong S to SE winds along the front. Rough seas are analyzed
generally N of 23N between 23W and 40W. Elsewhere across the
Atlantic, the pressure gradient between high pressures N of the
area and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain moderate to
fresh trades S of 25N between 45W and 70W, with gentle to moderate
trades elsewhere. Moderate seas also prevail across much of the
remaining Atlantic.
For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate
to a remnant trough and shift westward through Mon. A cold front
is forecast to enter the region early Mon morning, slowly shifting
SE and reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas by Tue
morning. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of the
front through late Tue, while rough seas persist in its wake
through midweek. The front will then weaken and wash out through
midweek with improving marine conditions from W to E toward the
end of the work-week.
$$
ERA
