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AXNT20 KNHC 152358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 28.0N 56.5W AT 15/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 500 NM ESE OF BERMUDA MOVING NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND EDOUARD COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE S SEMICIRCLE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 55W-59W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER HE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 18N24W TO 7N25W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 11N25W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 26W-33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N46W TO 9N48W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N47W. THIS SYSTEM COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY AND A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 44W-50W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER S MEXICO S OF 18N94W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER S MEXICO AND THE E PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO 11N25W TO 10N39W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N39W TO 9N47W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 34W-53W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA NEAR 31N90W TO THE TIP OF S TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W GULF NEAR 27N95W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N96W DRIFTING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF AND THE NE GULF STATES N OF 28N AND E OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W CUBA
...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS.. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N...AND THE W GULF W OF 92W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RATHER LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W PRIMARILY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA IS ALSO PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 12N W OF 77W. AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING HAS ALSO PRODUCED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA... AND PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N68W HAS ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO THIS CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS E OF 80W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


...HISPANIOLA...

EVENING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AGAIN ON TUE...SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED N OF THE ISLAND NEAR 25N68W WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HURRICANE EDOUARD AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE S BAHAMAS. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N77W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N18W TO 28N22W MOVING E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N68W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 65W-72W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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