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AXNT20 KNHC 012356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.9N 61.2W AT 01/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 17 NM SE OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 352 NM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MOVING WNW AT 21 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120-240 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 19N25W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N24W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH ALONG 27W WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY CENTERED NEAR THE LOW. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE AXIS AND LOW.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N39W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 9N35W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. 700 MB TROUGHING EXTENDS W OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH AN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM CENTERED NEAR THE LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AND LOW.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM N OF PUERTO RICO AT 19N66W TO 15N66W TO JUST N OF VENEZUELA AT 12N64W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA AND IS LARGELY SURROUNDED BY THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE NE OF THE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO 11N20W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N24W TO 11N32W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 9N35W TO 5N40W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 5N40W TO 4N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 16W-20W...FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 25W-30W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 35W-40W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 31N93W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW TO HOUSTON TEXAS TO S TEXAS AT 28N100W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 31N83W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S TO FT MYERS FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA S OF COCOA BEACH. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 85W-90W. AIR MASS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED OVER W CUBA...AND N YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE SW GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE NE GULF AT 27N86W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE SW GULF WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DIP TO THE NW GULF WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS AND CONVECTION IS TO PERSIST OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE AND T.S. BERTHA ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA...AND WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. AIR MASS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA
...COSTA RICA...S NICARAGUA...AND GUATEMALA. MORE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N84W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR T.S. BERTHA TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO. ALSO EXPECT MORE AIRMASS CONVECTION SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 69W-73W. MORE AIR MASS AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND BAHAMAS. A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 28N45W TO 26N50W TO 27N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW AND TROUGH. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 67W-73W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N53N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 51W-57W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR BOTH UPPER LEVEL LOWS TO MOVE W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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