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AXNT20 KNHC 021715
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 08N13W TO 03N18W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 03N30W TO 02N39W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N42W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 08W AND 43W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM 29N96W TO 27N97W. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. PATCHY FOG IS WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF FROM 27N97W TO 18N95W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. MODERATE SW WINDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND SE OF THE COLD FRONT. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS ARE W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE NW OF THE COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST TO NEAR VERA CRUZ TUE MORNING. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE E OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 26N DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC TO HISPANIOLA AND SW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO PANAMA. UPWARD MOTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE SUPPORTS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF 68W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE UNDER THE TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N. MAINLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN TODAY EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH S OF 14N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOWERS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL BRING CONVECTION TO THE NW CORNER OF THE BASIN BY WED.

HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO HISPANIOLA AND THEN SW OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N59W TO 28N64W TO 27N71W...AND A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N52W TO A 1016 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 25N58W TO 21N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N62W TO 20N53W TO 21N42W. AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N40W SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N43W TO 24N39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 34W AND 41W. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED NM NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. NEW CONVECTION WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLC OFF THE N FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO

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