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000
AXNT20 KNHC 230000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...


...GALE-FORCE WINDS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WED AT 0000 UTC...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM 30N91W TO 22N97W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A RIDGE TO EXTEND TO SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL SUPPORT GALE-FORCE NW TO N WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FT W OF FRONT. GALE WINDS ON THE GULF ARE FORECAST THROUGH WED EVENING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N13W AND CONTINUES OVER THE E ATLC WATERS NEAR 07N15W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 07N26W 05N35W TO 03N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 02N- 13N E OF 45W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A BROAD ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED NE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ITCZ TO THE GULF S OF A LINE FROM 30N86W TO 25N97W. AT THE SURFACE...S-SW FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT ADVECTS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN BASIN TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE. OTHERWISE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SW ALABAMA WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN GULF WED MORNING ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM PENSACOLA SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL BE W OF THE FRONT THROUGH WED EVENING SUPPORTED BY A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A RIDGE THAT WILL COVER THE ENTIRE BASIN THU MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF A BROAD MIDDLE-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED NE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...A RIDGE AT THE UPPER-LEVELS AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 20- 25 KT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN WHILE WINDS UP TO 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE 20-25 KT THE NEXT THREE DAYS...HOWEVER SPREADING TO THE REMAINDER BASIN TUE TO WED MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W N ATLC DRIFTS TO THE SW N ATLC...THUS INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF OF MEXICO THU MORNING WITH TAIL EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA SW TO BELIZE.

HISPANIOLA...

A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL PREDOMINATE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING THE ATLC WATERS N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION...HOWEVER SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER JACKSONVILLE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE CURRENT OF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO REACHES THE SW N ATLC...THUS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF A LINE FROM 30N67W SW TO 23N78W. FARTHER TO THE SE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N62W TO 20N67W WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN...A NARROW AND ELONGATED TROUGH ALOFT WITH BASE NEAR 27N40W SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION WITH TAIL EXTENDING FROM 30N39W SW TO 27N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 34W-45W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES W AND E OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW BASIN BY THU MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ RAMOS

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