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AXNT20 KNHC 172328
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 17/2100 UTC...HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 37.8N 51.2W OR ABOUT 743 NM E-NE OF BERMUDA MOVING NE AT 23 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MORE RAPID WEAKENING ON THURSDAY. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO LOSE HURRICANE INTENSITY ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 36N-41N BETWEEN 48W-53W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N39W TO 10N40W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS RETAINING SOME MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE GOES- R SEVIRI AIRMASS PRODUCT...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS INDICATED STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 25N56W TO 18N60W TO 10N60W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 56W-61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 11N24W TO 12N30W TO 10N40W TO 10N45W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N45W TO 11N53W TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 9N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 13W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 43W-46W...AND FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 52W-55W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. MOREOVER...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER W CUBA AND THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS..AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE N GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DIP OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORTING TRADES OF 5-15 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE ABOVE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER NW VENEZUELA... N COLOMBIA
...THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N81W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS HONDURAS... NICARAGUA...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 75W- 86W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ADVECTS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.


...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THU DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HURRICANE EDOUARD AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE BASIN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS ABOVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC FROM WEST AFRICA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N37W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 66W-70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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