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AXNT20 KNHC 011034
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 01S18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE S AMERICA COAST NEAR 04S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S TO 05N BETWEEN 14W AND 22W...AND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE GULF BASIN WITH CIRRUS STREAMING W TO E IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AT THE SURFACE...A WESTERN EXTENSION OF ATLANTIC RIDGING IS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AS A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 26N83W. THIS IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GULF PRIMARILY BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT...WITH LIGHTER FLOW NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH...AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS OF 20 KT ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND THE SURFACE HIGH IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN THIS MORNING. THE FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE GULF THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THAT TIME...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS SW TO HISPANIOLA. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT EXTEND OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. OTHER PATCHES OF SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN BETWEEN 14N AND 18N. TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF WINDS NEAR 25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND S OF CENTRAL CUBA. VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


...HISPANIOLA... A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
...EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 19N73W. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLC US COAST IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AS OF 0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO 26N79W. THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 28N. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N42W TO 25N54W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT S OF 23N IS DISSIPATING. HOWEVER...AMPLE MOISTURE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT. A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE WESTERNMOST HIGH OF 1022 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 28N55W. THE EASTERNMOST HIGH OF 1021 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 23N50W. FARTHER EAST...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 10N22W TO 7N29W IS VOID OF CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLC US COAST WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION TO THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

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