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AXNT20 KNHC 191751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 07N11W TO 01N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W TO THE N COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND FROM 04S TO 04N BETWEEN 27W AND 51W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE NW GULF IS SUPPORTING ACTIVE WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA WITH A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE LOW OVER THE NW GULF SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE FROM 29N90W TO 26N94W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH LIES JUST EAST...EXTENDING FROM 29N86W TO 25N90W. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS OVER THE GULF IS AS OF 1630 UTC...HELPING TO GENERATE NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA...TO THE GULF COAST NEAR 29N86W TO 27N87W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO WITHIN 50 NM OF A LINE FROM 27N88W TO 24N97W. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING E OF 91 W BETWEEN THE WESTERNMOST SURFACE TROUGH AND THE FL PENINSULA. MAINLY E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE W OF 91W...EXCEPT VARIABLE NEAR SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. THE TROUGH AND CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE NE AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE GULF OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE FORECASTING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ATLC HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS SW OVER THE CARIBBEAN. LOW PRESSURE RESIDES OVER COLOMBIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES DOMINATE THE BASIN...WITH A SMALL AREA OF WINDS TO 25 KT WITHIN 100 NM OF THE N HONDURAS COAST...AND WITHIN 200 NM OF THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS EXPECTED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE ISLAND ON MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING OVER OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 32N60W TO 30N70W TO 31N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 36N35W SPANS ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC. A DISSIPATING FRONT UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N22W TO 24N45W WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN FROM 05N TO 32N BETWEEN W AFRICA AND 50W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA ALONG 60W WITH CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFF THE N FL COAST...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND SE US.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO

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