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000
AXNT20 KNHC 280603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W SW TO 02S14W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 03S23W TO 03S35W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 05S E OF 04W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09S TO 01S BETWEEN 07W AND 32W... SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL S OF 03N W OF 47W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH BASE OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING OVER THE SW N ATLC TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA... SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF WHERE IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N95W. RIDGING AND A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SUPPORT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT E OF 93W. NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15 KT IS OVER THE REMAINDER SW GULF WHILE LIGHTER WIND FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE NW BASIN. THE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT ON THE STRAITS WILL MOVE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FAR WESTERN N ATLC WATERS EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS SW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 81W. WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR DOMINATING ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...WHICH IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN...INCREASING TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LIGHTER VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER BASIN W OF 80W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA SW TO NORTHERN HONDURAS SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH TAIL REACHING EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.


...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND WHILE SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE SURROUNDS ITS COASTAL AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SOME CLOUDINESS BUT NO SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE TAIL OF THIS FRONT IS FORECAST OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS MOST HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FAR WESTERN N ATLC WATERS EXTENDS ALONG 31N77W SW TO 26N80W...ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 72W...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N37W SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N35W SW TO 22N42W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS BEING DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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