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AXNT20 KNHC 091739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC GALE WARNING...COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM 32N73W ALONG 27N77W TO W CUBA NEAR 23N82W WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N WITHIN 270 NM W OF FRONT AND N OF 27N WITHIN 540 NM E OF FRONT. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE CONTINUING THROUGH WED EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE N OF 27N E OF 87W THROUGH THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS WED NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING THEN PULSE AGAIN THU EVENING ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W TO 4N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N28W 1N41W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 47W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 18W-29W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC AND N GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR 21N90W TO MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. STRONG WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE ACROSS THE NE GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE GULF S OF LINE FROM CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ALONG 26N90W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN OVER THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER NE MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE BASIN. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS HAITI NEAR 20N72W OVER THE E TIP OF JAMAICA THEN S ALONG 12N81W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 9N81W. BROKEN TO OVER LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE FRONT. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES N OF SAINT LUCIA. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA THROUGH EARLY THU. WINDS WILL PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA OVERNIGHT ON WED NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW HAITI WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL STALL OVER W HAITI TONIGHT INTO WED. THIS FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL GIVE THE ISLAND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS LATE WED INTO THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E CONUS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N73W ALONG 27N77W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE FRONT. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT TO WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA. A REMNANT QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N56W ALONG 29N62W TO 22N66W THEN INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HAITI NEAR 20N72W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES AND W OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO HAITI/WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE WED BEFORE MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THU NIGHT. GALES WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF 29N THROUGH WED. A THIRD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN NE FLORIDA AND BERMUDA SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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