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000
AXNT20 KNHC 231739
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A gale warning is in effect today for the waters of Canarias.
Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, listed
under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND
LARGE...METAREA II, or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM
/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/ BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Tropical Atlantic with axis
from 19N38W to 05N38W, moving west at 15 kt. The wave coincides
with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the global
models and is within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. No deep convection is observed
at this time as Saharan dust is north of 15N.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean and Central
America with axis from 20N84W to 10N83W, moving west at 10-15 kt.
The wave is within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is
from 12N-16N between 82W-86W.

A tropical wave is over the Bay of Campeche with axis from
21N92W to 12N94W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave coincides with
a weak 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis over southern Mexico.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 21N17W and continues to 10N30W to 08N41W where the
ITCZ begins and continues to 06N55W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 04N-12N between 10W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A tropical wave is over the Bay of Campeche. Please refer to the
section above for details. Elsewhere, a ridge extends across the
basin anchored by a 1021 mb high centered over the western
Atlantic near 35N58W. 5-10 kt SE surface winds are over most of
the Gulf of Mexico. In the upper levels, an upper level high is
centered over Mississippi near 32N90W. Scattered moderate
convection is over the E Gulf from 25N-28N between 85W-87W.
Scattered showers dots the remainder of the Gulf. Expect during
the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move west. Expect
little change elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean and
Central America. Please refer to the section above for details.
15-25 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.
Strongest winds are over the central Caribbean south of 17N.
Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean from 08N-
12N between 76W-81W. In the upper levels, a small upper level
low is centered the NW caribbean near 18N86W enhancing
convection. Elsewhere, easterly upper level flow is over the
central and eastern Caribbean with strong subsidence. Expect
during the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move west.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. This pattern
will prevail through the next 24 hours as Saharan dust and dry
air dominates the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is moving over the eastern Atlantic. Please
refer to the section above for details. A surface trough is over
the western Atlantic east of the Bahamas from 28N73W to 25N75W.
A 1021 mb high centered over the western Atlantic near 35N58W.
A large 1032 mb high is over the eastern Atlantic near the
Azores at 39N33W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level
low is centered north of the Bahamas near 28N78W enhancing
showers. Little change is expected within the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

FORMOSA

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