AXNT20 KNHC 270539

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1239 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.


A strengthened pressure gradient is expected support gale-force
winds during the late night and early morning hours off the coast
of Colombia over the next several nights. Please see the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
04N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 04N18W to
01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 100 nm on
either side of the ITCZ between 19W-41W.



Water vapor imagery indicates mainly dry air aloft within
southwesterly flow over the basin. At the surface...ridging
remains in control across the basin and eastern CONUS as a 1025
mb high is anchored near 36N77W. Mostly moderate to occasional
fresh easterly winds prevail within the southern periphery of the
high extending across the Gulf basin. The ridge is forecast to
slide eastward into the mid-Atlantic waters through the next 24
hours as southerly return flow persists across the Gulf until
early Wednesday. By that time, the next cold front is forecast to
emerge of the Texas and Louisiana coasts providing a new round of
fresh to occasional strong N-NE winds in wake of the front as it
sweeps southeast and stalls across central portion of the basin by
Thursday night.


Upper-level ridging prevails over the Caribbean basin as water
vapor indicates mostly dry air within an overall subsident
environment. A surface trough was analyzed across the northwest
Caribbean from 20N83W to 17N85W. Isolated low-topped showers are
within 120 nm either side of the boundary and forecast to drift
westward toward the Yucatan peninsula today. Farther east, quick
moving isolated showers are possible through the overnight hours
mainly east of 71W. Aside from the Special Features near-gale to
gale-force winds expected off the coast of Colombia each
night, moderate to fresh trades will persist today and gradually
increase to fresh to strong breeze levels by Tuesday as high
pressure anchors itself to the north across the southwest
Atlantic. The strengthened pressure gradient across the basin will
remain in place through the week.


Currently fair conditions and mostly clear skies prevail across
the island. Water vapor imagery also indicates very dry air and
overall strong subsidence over the region. Little change is
expected through the next 24 hours.


Water vapor imagery shows a middle to upper-level shortwave
troughing moving over the Canadian Maritimes that supports a cold
front entering the discussion area near 31N70W to 29N74W then
becoming stationary through the Florida Straits to 24N82W.
Isolated showers are possible within 75 nm either side of the
front. To the east, a surface trough extends from 29N64W to
27N67W with isolated showers possible within 60 nm either side of
the trough axis. The remainder of the basin is under the influence
of a surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high centered west of
the Azores near 38N35W. Within the southern periphery of the
ridge, a weak 1025 mb low is centered near 32N41W with a
cold front extending from the low to 29N44W then a stationary
front to 29N48W. Isolated showers are occurring north of 28N
between 36W-47W and is forecast to dissipate during the next 12 to
24 hours.

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