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000
AXNT20 KNHC 220548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 0300 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 45.1W OR ABOUT 850 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 45W-47W. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N36W TO 11N36W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE DEPICTED WELL ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS N OF 15N HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. THE WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N47W TO 13N47W MOVING W AT 20 KT. AN ASCAT PASS SHOWS THIS WAVE IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND WILL BE DROPPED ON THE NEXT BULLETIN. NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N77W TO 10N77W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS WELL AS STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 8N23W TO 11N34W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N34W TO 11N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF T.D. TWO FROM 10N47W TO 10N55W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 8N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 14W- 19W...AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 23W-29W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W. 5 -10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND THE HIGH. 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND CUBA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 91W-93W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S ALABAMA NEAR 32N88W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N BETWEEN 77W- 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER EL SALVADOR AND W HONDURAS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 87W-91W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.


...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMAICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN 24 HOURS. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE CENTRAL AND N BAHAMAS W OF 76W DUE TO SURFACE CONFLUENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N40W. PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N64 WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N51W ALSO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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