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AXNT20 KNHC 171730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 17/1500 UTC...HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 36.4N 53.3W OR ABOUT 620 NM E-NE OF BERMUDA MOVING NE AT 21 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MORE RAPID WEAKENING ON THURSDAY. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO LOSE HURRICANE INTENSITY ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 31N-40N BETWEEN 51W-59W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N38W...ACROSS THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 09N39W MOVING W AT 20 KT. DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE AXIS LIMITING CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED COINCIDING WITH PATCHES OF HIGH MOISTURE FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 35W-39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS AT ABOUT 200 NM E-NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N57W TO 12N58W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 23N55W TO 15N58W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 10N19W TO 13N29W TO 10N44W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N44W TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 09N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-14N E OF 22W AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 36W-44W


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS OVER NE MEXICO AND EXTENDING TO THE GULF WATERS WITH CENTER NEAR 27N104W. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT IS GENERATING A NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING S ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG 27N BETWEEN 83W- 94W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 24N97W TO 20N95W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 93W-96W. ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS AS A SURFACE 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH CENTER NEAR 26N89W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE S CONUS WILL MOVE S ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N82W. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 09N64W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS EVIDENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS ENHANCING CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-16N BETWEEN 78W-83W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE RELATED TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TRADES OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING.


...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE RELATED TO AN UPPER- LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT. RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH CENTER NEAR 26N69W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PREVAILING ACROSS THIS AREA ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 65W-69W. A SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 32N77W WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR 42N54W. THESE FEATURES ARE ENHANCING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ASIDE FROM THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED IN THE WAVES SECTION...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ RIVERA

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