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AXNT20 KNHC 310604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N29W TO 15N31W...TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N32W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 32W AND 34W...AND FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 36W AND 37W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N50W 14N49W 10N48W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N60W 14N62W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE RUNS THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO EL SALVADOR. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...AND FROM WESTERN HONDURAS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 9N20W 10N35W 8N41W AND 9N51W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N51W TO 9N57W AND 8N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 83W AND 84W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 25N81W 24N87W 20N96W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 21N97W 24N90W 25N83W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO THE COAST FOR THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KXTH...KCRH...KBVE...KDLP...KGHB...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PALACIOS TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN IS IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR TEXAS...AND IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE FOUND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE IN PERRY FLORIDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 90W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 21.5N TO 23N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.73 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.11 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. EXPECT ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 78W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W.


...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N63W TO A 24N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING AROUND THE 24N69W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 62W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N55W 27N62W 24N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO HAITI. THIS INCLUDES PRECIPITATION IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND ONE REPORT OF SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROUGH WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 36 TO 42 HOURS. A RIDGE EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT....THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 14N W OF 78W. A SECOND AREA OF CONERN CONSISTS OF...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET...FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 31N/32N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N67W BEYOND 32N75W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N37W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N38W AND 22N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N TO 34N BETWEEN 32N AND 50W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 51W AND 53W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N17W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N25W...TO 29N34W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N52W...TO 29N67W AND BEYOND 32N80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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