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AXNT20 KNHC 020539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W ALONG 4N18W TO 2N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W TO 2N29W THEN RESUMES S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 3N31W TO S OF THE EQUATOR TO NEAR 3S34W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-14W...WITHIN 90/120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 19W-23W...AND WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 19W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 2W-8W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 28W-40W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO OVER THE E CONUS/NW ATLC. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM INLAND OVER THE CONUS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO TEXAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN 87W-96W WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUING TO REPORT PATCHES OF FOG N OF 26N W OF 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM 28N95W ALONG 26N96W TO 21N97W. LOCALLY DENSE HAZE/FOG WILL DISPERSE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW GULF EARLY MON. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO MON EVENING AND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUE NIGHT THEN PASS E THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 77W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPPING S OVER PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA AND A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 66W-73W INCLUDING THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF 66W TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A MID LEVEL LOW ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W IS GENERATING A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N73W TO 12N78W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG SE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON ACROSS THE WATERS N OF NW VENEZUELA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF HONDURAS TO 18N THROUGH TUE INCREASING TO STRONG EACH NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE WED.

HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E ON WED. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW ATLC WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N45W ALONG 26N50W 23N66W ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 33N70W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC E OF THE SURFACE RIDGE NEAR 32N58W ALONG 29N63W 27N67W TO 28N71W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTED BY THIS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N53W TO A WEAK 1017 MB LOW NEAR 26N57W TO 22N58W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 28N38W TO A WEAK 1018 MB LOW NEAR 25N38W TO 21N40W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 53W-63W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E TONIGHT MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MON. A NE TO SW RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NW ATLC WILL SHIFT E TO A POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO PORT CANAVERAL FLORIDA EARLY MON THEN SHIFT S TO NEAR FORT PIERCE FLORIDA ON TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING OFF NE FLORIDA ON TUE NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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