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AXNT20 KNHC 262338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING WILL RESUME AT 0600 UTC FRIDAY OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THIS WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1200 UTC ON FRIDAY AND EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY 0600 UTC ON SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS BETWEEN THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 01N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 00S35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-00N BETWEEN 36W-43W AND FROM 02S-01N BETWEEN 22W-26W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 994 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 37N69W EXTENDS IS COLD FRONT W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF FROM 26N82W TO 22N88W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N88W TO 18N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM S OF THE FRONT FROM 25N AFFECTING THE WATERS S OF 25N. A GENTLE NE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE BASIN WHILE A SLIGHT NW FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS S FL AND NW CUBA BEFORE STALLING. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A STABLE AIRMASS PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER...WITH ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 78W WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SE FLOW PREVAILS W OF 78W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF COLOMBIA. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TO ENTER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN AND STALL OVER NW CUBA ENHANCING CONVECTION.


...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARE SUPPORTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND...WITH ONLY WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS OBSERVED. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 994 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 37N69W. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM 31N76W TO 27N80W THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. TO THE E...A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES PREVAILS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING REACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ ERA

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