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AXNT20 KNHC 061801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW N ATLC NEAR 29N77W TONIGHT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 29N W OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW BEGINNING AT 0600 UTC SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE SUNDAY EVENING. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N07W TO 04N25W TO 03N44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 35W AND 51W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW OVER NE TEXAS AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW TO JUST OFFSHORE THE TEXAS GULF COAST AS OF 1500 UTC. AS OF 1500 UTC THE FRONT EXTENDED OVER THE NW GULF FROM 30N94W TO 26N97W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM 29N92W TO 23N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE NW OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE US HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS SW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE NE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN. THE COLD ADVECTION OVER WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF IS MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD COVER MAINLY SE OF A LINE FROM 30N84W TO 21N97W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MARCH EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND MERGE INTO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD EAST BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 21N77W TO 21N84W TO 15N86W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AS OF 1500 UTC A WEAK SURFACE LOW OF 1016 MB HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW. DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE COVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A FEW PATCHES OF SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW MAINLY N OF 15N INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUNDAY MORNING.


...HISPANIOLA...

A WEAK 1015 MB LOW NEAR 19N68W SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA TODAY. THE LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AS IT MOVES JUST N OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N63W TO 26N70W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 21N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT. A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS NEAR 19N68W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N OF THE LOW TO 26N68W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. AN UPPER LOW NEAR 22N56W IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N77W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT AND BECOME WRAPPED INTO THE DEVELOPING LOW. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MERGE WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY N OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 75W IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP W OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MERGES WITH THE LOW LATE TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

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