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000
AXNT20 KNHC 290553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 4N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N21W TO 4N35W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL/SOUTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 3N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 14W AND 23W...AND FROM 13N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 23W AND 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 26N43W 20N47W 11N50W 5N50W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE 32N37W 5N50W TROUGH.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRESENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AT THIS MOMENT. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERNMOST PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N91W. THE FRONT IS COLD FROM 28N91W TO 20N95W...TO 19N97W IN MEXICO AND TO 21N100W IN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N98W...THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS... TO 20N97W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KBBF...KBQX... KXIH...KHHV...KVBS...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KGUL...KCRH...KGBK... KVQT...KGHB...KGRY AND A VISIBILITY OF 1 TO 2 MILES AND FOG...
..KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...KIPN...KIKT...KVOA...KVKY AND A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG...KMIS AND A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES AND FOG...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO PERRY FLORIDA. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG AND RAIN ARE INCLUDED IN THE OBSERVATIONS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG COVER FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO PARTS OF THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 81W... FROM 14N SOUTHWARD...AND IN CENTRAL AMERICA WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N85W IN NICARAGUA TO 15N87W IN HONDURAS TO 20N88W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...IN SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 28/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.22 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.11 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...0.02 IN ST. THOMAS...AND 0.02 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS FROM TRADEWIND FLOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 14N SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD.


...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 19N59W...TO 19N70W NEAR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...AS LATE AS 28/2300 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING WAS IN BARAHONA AS LATE AS 29/0000 UTC. SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM A COSTA RICA/PANAMA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER BEYOND CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START NEAR 25N76W NEAR THE BAHAMAS. NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 18 HOURS OR SO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WILL END WITH EAST-TO- SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 21N69W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ON TOP OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME...ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 26N43W 20N47W 11N50W 5N50W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE 32N37W 5N50W TROUGH. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 23N40W 20N50W AND 19N59W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 19N59W TO 19N70W NEAR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 36W AND 46W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 210 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 17N52W 19N40W 26N29W BEYOND 32N25W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE 32N37W-TO-20N47W-TO-5N50W TROUGH.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 29N42W...TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N60W...TO 29N69W... TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N87W AND THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ON TOP OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 23N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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