000
AXNT20 KNHC 051036
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jul 5 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Depression Three is centered near 30.8N 78.6W at 05/0900
UTC or 140 nm SSE of Charleston South Carolina, moving NNE at 2
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Bands of showers, with
embedded thunderstoms, associated with the cyclonic circulation of
T.D. Three are affecting the waters N of 24N and W of 74W, including
the NW Bahamas and the Florida Keys. A slow motion towards the
north-northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a
turn northward and then northeastward by Sunday night. On the
forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move near
or over the coast of South Carolina on Sunday morning. Gradual
strengthening is expected, and the depression is forecast to
become a tropical storm later today. Tropical Depression Three is
expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the coastal
plain of the Carolinas today through Monday. Storm total rainfall
of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, is expected.
This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. A storm
surge of 1 to 2 ft above ground level could occur along the coast
in the tropical storm watch area in areas of onshore flow. The
depression is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to
much of the southeastern United States coastline north of
northeastern Florida during the next couple of days.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Three NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
Gale Warning E of 35W:
A tight pressure gradient between a 1036 mb high pressure system
located NE of the Azores and lower pressures in NW Africa will
continue to support gale-force northeast winds, with severe gusts,
close and between the Canary Islands until at least 06/12 UTC
according to Meteo France. The most recent scatterometer pass
confirmed the presence of the gale force winds, particularly
between islands. Moderate to rough seas are within these winds,
peaking around 10 ft. Mariners are also advised that visibility
may be reduced to moderate or poor due to sand haze, especially in
the far E part.
For more details, please visit the Meteo France High Seas Forecast
listed on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave remains surrounded by a
dry and stable atmospheric environment. A few showers are evident
near the southern portion of the wave axis.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south of 16N, moving
westward at around 10 kt. A dry and stable atmospheric environment
also surrounds this wave. Only isolated showers are near its southern
part.
A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean. Its axis is along
69W/70W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms area near the wave axis. This system
appears to enhance convection in the vicinity of the ABC Islands.
A tropical wave is over northern Central America. Its axis is along
87W, S of 18N and extends into the far eastern Pacific. The wave
is enhancing some convective activity across the area.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 11N30W and to
07N46W. The ITCZ extends from 07N46W to the coast of Guyana near
07N59W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 08N to 13N E of 20W to the coast of W Africa. Scattered
moderate convection is observed elsewhere from 06N to 10N between
12W and 25W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface trough trough extends across central Florida and the NE
Gulf from T.D. Three located off NE Florida. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are evident over parts of Florida and the NE Gulf.
Similar convective activity is also seen over the north-central
Gulf and SE Louisiana. A 1017 mb high pressure is analyzed near
26N91W. This weather pattern is supporting moderate to fresh SE to
S winds over the NW Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh NE winds
over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds are noted
elsewhere. Seas of 3 ft or less are across the basin, except for
slightly higher seas of 3 to 4 ft over the NW Gulf. Winds and seas
could be higher near thunderstorms.
For the forecast, a surface trough will persist across the NE
Gulf through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue to develop along this trough over the waters near Florida.
Weak high pressure will then prevail into early next week. Fresh
NE to E winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan
Peninsula each afternoon and evening through early next week as a
trough develops inland daily and then drifts westward over the Bay
of Campeche at night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please
see the Tropical Wave section for more details.
The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and
low pressure in Colombia is resulting in fresh to strong trades
over most of the central part of the basin as indicated by recent
scatterometer satellite data. Seas over these waters are 6 to 9
ft. Moderate trades are elsewhere east of about 80W along with
seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas are prevalent. Aside from the convection associated
with the passing tropical waves, generally dry conditions are
noted over the tropical waters, with low-topped trade wind showers
moving westward across the basin.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and
the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong
trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through
the forecast period. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas
are expected in the eastern Caribbean while gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere, with the
exception of moderate to fresh E winds in the Gulf of Honduras
tonight through Wed night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Depression Three and a Gale Warning that is in effect E of 35W.
ALso, two tropical waves are moving across the tropical Atlantic.
Please see the Tropical Wave section for more information.
Aside from T.D. Three, a surface trough is centered north of
Hispaniola, and runs from 28N65W to 22N70W. An area of showers
with embedded thunderstorms is associated with this trough. This
feature is under a broad upper-level trough that is helping to
induce this convective activity. The remainder of the Atlantic
domain is under the influence of a strong 1035 mb high pressure
system located NE of the Azores. The present pressure gradient
between this high and lower pressures over the NW Africa is
allowing for fresh to strong northeast winds north of about 22N
and east of 32W, including between the Canary Islands, where
winds are reaching gale force, and along coastal Western Sahara.
Rough seas are associated with these winds. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Depression Three will
strengthen to a tropical storm near 31.5N 78.8W this afternoon,
move to 32.6N 79.2W Sun morning, inland to 33.7N 79.4W Sun
afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near
34.8N 78.8W Mon morning, inland to 36.3N 77.1W Mon afternoon, and
dissipate Tue morning. The main impacts of T.D. Three will remain
north of the forecast area. High pressure will prevail elsewhere.
This pattern will support generally gentle to moderate winds
except for moderate to fresh winds off the northern coast of
Hispaniola through Mon.
$$
GR
