AXNT20 KNHC 241739

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
139 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.


A tropical wave extends its axis from 15N34W to 06N34W, moving W
at 15-20 kt. The wave remains low-amplitude and coincides with
700 mb troughing S of 13N between 30W-40W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 10N-15N between 30W-35W.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 17N56W to 09N59W, moving W
at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with a 700 mb troughing between
54W-63W depicted by global models with a maximum in 850 mb
relative vorticity in the vicinity of the wave axis near 12N. No
significant deep convection is associated with the wave at this


The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the African coast near 12N16W
to 07N20W to 08N31W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis
extends from 07N37W to 11N54W. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are from 02N-13N between 15W-31W.



A middle to upper level shortwave trough progressing eastward
over central and eastern Texas and extending across the western
Gulf waters along 95W. With this, cloudiness prevails across the
basin mainly east of the trough's axis. At the surface, a ridge
prevails across the basin anchored by a 1026 mb high centered
over southwest Alabama near 32N87W. This feature provides mostly
gentle to moderate E-SE winds across the whole basin. The ridge
is forecast to be reinforced by another ridge settling into the
Great Lakes region tonight into Tuesday increasing the pressure
gradient across the region. This will result in winds increasing
into moderate to fresh levels across the eastern Gulf and Florida
Straits. This overall synoptic pattern is expected to persist
through Thursday night.


The base of an upper-level trough extends from the western
Atlantic over eastern Cuba and a portion of the NW Caribbean
mainly north of 15N and west of 70W. This trough supports a
weakening stationary front analyzed from 18N85W to eastern Cuba
near 20N74W. Scattered light to moderate convection prevails south
of the front between 77W-83W. The southern extent of a surface
trough is reaching the northeast portion of Puerto Rico near
18N66W. Isolated showers are occurring within 60 nm either side
of the trough axis. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to
occasional fresh NE winds across the NW Caribbean N of the
weakening front while gentle to moderate trades prevail
elsewhere. During the next 24 hours a tropical wave will enter the
eastern Caribbean with isolated showers. The front south of Cuba
will dissipate.


Currently isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring across
northern portions of the island and the adjacent Atlantic coastal
waters supported by a diffluent flow aloft. Increased probability
of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected through the
next 24 hours as the frontal troughing lingers across the region.


Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for details. A surface ridge extends across the
western Atlantic west of 65W anchored by a 1026 mb high centered
over southwest Alabama near 32N87W. A broad upper-level trough is
noted in Water Vapor imagery over the SW Atlantic supporting a
stationary front that extends from 20N74W to 30N60W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are occurring within 100 nm on either
side of the front. To the east, a surface trough extends from
19N66W to 24N64W to 28N60W. Isolated showers are observed along
the trough. An upper-level low is reflected at the surface as
another surface trough that extends from 17N49W to 14N48W.
Scattered moderate convection prevails east of the trough between
43W-47W. A weakening stationary front extends across the eastern
portion of the basin from 23N37W to 21N26W to 24N16W. A similar
weather pattern will prevail through the next 24 hours.

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