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AXNT20 KNHC 232337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH A SQUALL LINE FROM 31N86W TO 27N97W. GALE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 24/00Z AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NE GULF. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN TONIGHT...WHICH MAY DEVELOP GALE FORCE WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF. SEE THE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 6N32W TO 4N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 18W-36W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM ARIZONA TO OKLAHOMA AND CONNECTED TO A 993 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 37N96W. ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 30N89W TO 25N93W. TO THE E...THE COMBINATION OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND LOW AND THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE N GULF IS SUPPORTING A SQUALL LINE LOCATED FROM 31N86W TO 27N87W. GALE FORCE WINDS ACCOMPANY THIS SQUALL LINE AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 83W-86W. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN MAINLY S OF 26N...10-15 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAIL AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS TO THE S GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24- 48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SQUALL LINE TO EXIT THE BASIN WHILE DISSIPATING. THE COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE U.S. WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N82W. DRY AIR AS WELL AS SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. A WEAK AND BROAD UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. TRADEWINDS OF 10-15 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.


...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE ISLAND. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER IS PREVAILING. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. A 995 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 33N91W EXTENDING ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FROM THAT POINT INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR 26N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THIS BOUNDARY N OF 30N BETWEEN 72W-79W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N70W TO 28N47W. FROM THAT POINT ON...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT INTO THE NE ATLANTIC NEAR 42N24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY N OF 32N. TO THE N OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN N OF 28N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT TO WEAKEN. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ ERA

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