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AXNT20 KNHC 311749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC N OF 30N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 TO 20 FT WITH NW SWELL. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA N OF 30N W OF 77W. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 13 FT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE-FORCE BY 1800 UTC THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK TO GALE-FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL AGAIN DECREASE BELOW GALE-FORCE BY 1200 UTC MONDAY. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N10W TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 1N30W TO 0N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 8W-10W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 22W-26W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N90W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AT 28N97W. 15-20 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE N OF FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FRONT IS MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NE TO N FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT ON SUN NIGHT FOR THE A NEW COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE N COAST OF HONDURAS...AND ALONG THE COAST OF NE HISPANIOLA. MORE SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR N OF PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING WITH WSW FLOW IS OVER THE AREA WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO BE ALONG THE COASTS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA. ALSO EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO PULSE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE NE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE ISLAND WITH THE TRADEWINDS. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL HOWEVER SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N61W TO 28N66W TO THE N BAHAMAS AT 25N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W MOVING E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT E OF THE BAHAMAS. A GALE IS FORECAST FOR AN AREA OVER THE W ATLANTIC TONIGHT. SEE ABOVE. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N52W TO 24N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT N OF 25N. A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N32W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 55W N OF 24N SUPPORTING THE FRONTS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N34W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 32W-34W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH SHOWERS OR CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP MONDAY ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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