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AXNT20 KNHC 060605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 06 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THE COASTAL AREAS OF LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W TO 04N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N15W TO 04N20W 03N30W 01N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 46W...TO 01S49W IN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 35W AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF BRAZIL. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 17W AND 30W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 24 HOURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

FROM TEXAS TO ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...MVFR AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA TO 18N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT 18N85W...AND IT CONTINUES INTO THE WESTERN PART OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO EASTERN HONDURAS AND PARTS OF WESTERN NICARAGUA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N62W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W EASTWARD.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL...TO THE EAST OF 65W...AND FROM 14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 06/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.07 IN GUADELOUPE.


...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...AND NORTH-TO- NORTHEAST 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI AT 06/0200 UTC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FOR BARAHONA AT 06/0000 UTC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THEN A RIDGE...ARE FORECAST TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT WEST-TO- NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...BRINGING NORTHERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA...FOR DAY ONE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO...AS THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF DAY ONE...BECOMING EAST-TO- SOUTHEAST...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE END OF DAY ONE. EXPECT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 27N73W...THROUGH THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W BEYOND 22N73W IN THE BAHAMAS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N62W. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 19N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1014 MB LOW CENTER TO 26N68W...AND TO 16N67W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 30N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BETWEEN 50W AND 64W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N28W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 360 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONIC CENTER.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 63W EASTWARD. A 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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