Home


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 04N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N32W 01N40W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SUPPORTS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM IDAHO SE TO NORTHERN MEXICO AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA WESTWARD IS ALONG THE NORTHERN BASIN FROM 29N83W TO 28N90W TO 27N97W TO A 1004 MB LOW OVER NE MEXICO. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE OVER THE W-NW GULF THAT IS ENHANCING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W AND SUPPORTS SEA FOG ELSEWHERE N OF 26N W OF 90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTICED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS W OF 90W S OF THE TROUGH AXIS ARE FROM THE S-SE RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KT. ON THE REMAINDER BASIN S OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WINDS RANGE BETWEEN FROM 10 TO 15 KT AND ARE FROM THE S-SW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE DOMINATE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INLAND WILL EMERGE FROM THE TEXAS COAST MONDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE GULF THROUGH WED WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC LINGERS OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CLOUDS INLAND. A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE IS ALONG THE COASTS FROM VENEZUELA TO COSTA RICA THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 83W. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DEEP LAYER DRY AIR...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TRADES OF 20 KT ARE OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 76W. TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC LINGERS OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CLOUDS INLAND. HOWEVER...THE ISLAND IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE THAT SUPPORTS STABILITY AND FAIR WEATHER. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA SUPPORTS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NW ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 30N49W TO 27N52W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE TO 25N57W...JUST S OF A 1015 MB DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N58W. WEST OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 65W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS MONDAY MORNING REACHING THE CENTRAL BASIN WED MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

Home