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000
AXNT20 KNHC 221113
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
713 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area that is called: AGADIR.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W/31W from 18N southward. This position is based on satellite imagery. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 03N to 17N beween 27W and 36W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18N39W 13N42W 07N45W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 10N to 13N between 35W and 40W. scattered strong within 45 nm on either side of 11N43W 10N46W 08N47W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W/60W from 23N southward. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 14N to 24N between 57W and 65W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W from 20N in the central sections of the Dominican Republic to NW Venezuela. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 16N to 20N between 68W and 77W. rainshowers are possible from 20N to 23N between 67W and 75W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W/88W, from 18N southward. This wave cuts across parts of Honduras and El Salvador, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the tropical wave.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W, to 13N28W, to 12N39W. The ITCZ continues from 09N45W to 08N50W and 08N55W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 05N to 10N between 49W and 54W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 60 nm to the S of SE Louisiana. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 24N northward. A second cyclonic circulation center is about 150 nm to the NW of the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. Convective precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate from 24N northward. scattered moderate to isolated strong from 19N to 20N between 94W and 96W. earlier precipitation that was in Mexico, from the Yucatan Peninsula to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, has weakened leaving convective debris clouds.

A surface ridge extends from Lake Okeechobee in south Florida, into the central sections of the Gulf of Mexico, to 25N94W, into NE Mexico.

A thermal trough is along 92W/93W from 22N southward.


...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD, and FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

Convective precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate from 24N northward. scattered moderate to isolated strong from 19N to 20N between 94W and 96W.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 16N northward between the Mona Passage and NW Cuba. A tropical wave is along 71W/72W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 16N to 20N between 68W and 77W. rainshowers are possible from 20N to 23N between 67W and 75W.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from Central America into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, to Jamaica, including in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Middle level to upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the easternmost part of the area, to the E and SE of the trough/ cyclonic wind flow.

Convective precipitation: numerous strong in the Gulf of Uraba of Colombia, within a 30 nm radius of 09N77W. rainshowers are possible from 11N southward from 80W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 22/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.13 in Guadeloupe, and 0.01 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras.


...HISPANIOLA...

Hispaniola is on the eastern side of an upper level trough. The trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean near 27N76W. Upper level southerly wind flow is moving across the area.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W from 20N in the central sections of the Dominican Republic to NW Venezuela. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 16N to 20N between 68W and 77W. rainshowers are possible from 20N to 23N between 67W and 75W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: nearby rainshowers. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. Puerto Plata: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that the current trough will last for another 12 hours or so. An Atlantic Ocean-to- Hispaniola ridge will bring anticyclonic wind flow to the area for the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that Hispaniola will be on the southern side of an Atlantic Ocean ridge. Larger-scale anticyclonic wind flow will be interspersed with a few inverted troughs, during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that E-to-SE wind flow will move across the area, with Hispaniola on the southern side of an Atlantic Ocean ridge.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 225 nm to the east of SE Florida. The cyclonic wind flow that surrounds the cyclonic center covers the Atlantic Ocean and the Bahamas, and parts of Cuba and Hispaniola. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible from 22N northward between 67W and interior sections of Florida, and also in the coastal waters of Florida in the Gulf of Mexico.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center and associated trough are about 1700 nm to the west of southern Morocco. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 20N northward between 37W and 50W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N39W, to 29N45W, to a 1023 mb high pressure center that is near 28N57W, to 27N73W. into the central Gulf of Mexico.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ MT

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