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000
AXNT20 KNHC 040547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 03N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N19W TO 04N27W TO 03N34W TO 04N40W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-11N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 07W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-03N BETWEEN 10W-14W...FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 12W-17W... AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 39W-48W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N87W TO OVER WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MOBILE BAY NEAR 30N88W TO 26N87W TO 22N85W. WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND MOVE WITHIN THE BACK SIDE AND NW FLOW OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CONVECTION IS LIMITED...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA W-SW TO THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS PREVAIL WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SE GULF AND E OF 85W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS FROM OVER WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N85W TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N80W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A PAIR OF BOUNDARIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE EASTERN BOUNDARY IS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM FAR EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N74W SW TO 16N83W. THE SECOND BOUNDARY IS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 22N82W TO 16N85W. BOTH BOUNDARIES ARE PROMOTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF AMPLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W SW TO THE TAIL END OF THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 16N84W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT E OF 73W. ONE EXCEPTION IS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 10N ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PANAMA WHICH REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 05N. LOOKING AHEAD...THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE BY TUESDAY WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES EXPANDING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.


...HISPANIOLA... A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND FROM 23N70W TO 20N75W TO 19N80W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 19N W OF 71W FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER TO THE NW OF THE ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY BECOMING DIFFUSE BY LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WITH CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE REGION AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAXIMIZED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AREA DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING ON MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 40N51W WITH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 31N69W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 39N53W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N52W WHICH QUICKLY BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 31N54W AND EXTENDS SW TO THE FAR EASTERN TIP OF CUBA NEAR 20N74W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER W OF 65W...MOISTURE INCREASES ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH REMAIN FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 65W-82W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 33N76W. FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N47W. FINALLY...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 40N18W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N18W SW TO 29N23W TO 26N36W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ HUFFMAN

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