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000
AXNT20 KNHC 262333
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
733 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the east Tropical Atlantic with
axis from 18N25W to 09N25W, moving west near 10-15 kt over the
past 18 hours. A broad mid-level low is observed on the visible
satellite imagery along this wave supporting scattered moderate
convection south of 12N between 22W-28W.

A tropical wave is moving across the central Tropical Atlantic
with axis extending from 18N37W to 09N36W, moving west near 10-15 kt
over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb
low/trough as depicted in the global models and prevails within a
surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. No associated deep convection is observed at this time as
Saharan dust and dry air prevails in its environment.

A tropical wave is moving across the east Caribbean with axis from
22N68W to 11N68W, moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave is well depicted in visible satellite imagery and in
model guidance. Isolated showers and thunderstorms prevail within
this wave mainly over the northern portion north of 16N 67W-73W
affecting the Mona Passage and Hispaniola.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 15N17W to 13N29W to 07N45W. The ITCZ begins near
07N45W to 06N54W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical wave in the east Atlantic, isolated showers are observed
within 200 nm south of the Monsoon Trough between 20W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A diffluent flow aloft prevails across the northern Gulf waters
supporting scattered moderate convection north of 24N and west of
88W. At the surface, a ridge prevails across the basin anchored by
a 1021 mb high centered over the west Atlantic. To the south,
diurnal heating is generating isolated moderate convection across
the Yucatan peninsula which is moving west approaching the Bay of
Campeche. Similar activity is developing across Cuba and moving
northwestward reaching the Florida Straits and Keys. Scatterometer
data depicts a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the
basin. Expect for the convection over the northwest Gulf to
dissipate within the next 24 hours as the upper-level support
weakens. A surface ridge will prevail across the area. Isolated
convection is expected over the Bay of Campeche as a thermal
trough moves west from the Yucatan Peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please
refer to the section above for details. An inverted upper-level
trough extends across the western Caribbean mainly west of 80W.
With this, isolated moderate convection prevails across the same
area. Diurnal heating generated scattered moderate convection
across Cuba and Jamaica which is moving northwest across their
adjacent waters. The Monsoon Trough extends from Colombia to
Panama and Costa Rica generating scattered showers and
thunderstorms south of 12N between 81W-84W. Saharan dust and dry
air prevails across the central and east Caribbean inhibiting
significant convection. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh trades across the area. Within the next 24 hours, the
tropical wave will continue moving west with convection. Little
change is expected elsewhere. The next tropical wave will enter
the east Caribbean by the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed across the island
as a tropical wave approaches. The wave will continue moving west
with convection during the next 24 hours. Drier weather is
expected by Wednesday night/early Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the eastern Atlantic. Please
refer to the section above for details. Scattered moderate
convection developed over Cuba this afternoon and is moving northwest
reaching the Florida Straits and the southwest Atlantic mainly
west of 77W. To the east, a surface high is centered near 28N69W.
A weakness in the surface ridge was analyzed as a stationary front
that extends from 28N61W to 34N52W. Isolated convection is
observed along the front. Surface ridging dominates the remainder
of the basin anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 43N28W.
Little change is expected within the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
ERA

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