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000
AXNT20 KNHC 200605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 18W AND 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE...RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH...FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N48W 15N51W 10N52W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 22N BETWEEN 44W AND 54W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N70W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 17N71W...TO LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN HAITI...IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI COASTAL WATERS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W...AND IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF SENEGAL AND GAMBIA NEAR 13N17W...TO THE 1008 MB LOW CENTER...TO 9N30W AND 10N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N37W TO 10N45W AND 12N50W...11N54W...INTO NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR 8N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W.


...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N/33N ALONG 60W...TO 31N64W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N64W TO 30N70W...TO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W...TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND CONTINUING INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND TO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N75W...TO SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N90W...AND TO 27N95W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W...IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 84W AND 85W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W 24N70W...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 29N.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS... KGVX...KEMK...KCRH...KVQT...KGHB...KGRY...KATP...KMDJ...KSPR... KDLP...AND KXPY.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED...IN TEXAS IN WESLACO AND MCALLEN...IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL AREA...AND IN PORT LAVACA...IN FLORIDA...LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN BROOKSVILLE...IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING CITIES/COMMUNITIES...AND IN PUNTA GORDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N70W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 17N71W...TO LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN HAITI...IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI COASTAL WATERS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W...AND IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N62W...TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N74W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS EASTERN PANAMA...BEYOND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COLOMBIA FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W...FROM COLOMBIA/PANAMA TO 11N BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THAT IS ALONG 76W AND 79W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 79W WESTWARD.


...HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N70W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 17N71W...TO LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN HAITI...IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI COASTAL WATERS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W...AND IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE CURRENT RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA RIDGE WILL PUSH NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH...AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N50W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 45W AND 62W.

A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 14N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 31N17W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO EITHER TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 24N20W 27N30W 29N42W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N50W...TO 28N58W AND 21N66W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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