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000
AXNT20 KNHC 250604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic from 06N-17N with axis
near 29W, moving W at 10 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is
associated with a 1012 mb low centered near 12N29W. Meteosat
composite imagery show Saharan dry air and dust intrusion into the
wave environment, which is limiting the convection to scattered
moderate S of the low center from 06N-10N between 23W and 33W.

A tropical wave is in the west Atlantic from 07N-21N with axis
near 54W, moving at 30 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW from
the surface to 850 mb show mostly dry air in the wave environment. Meteosat
composite imagery show Saharan dry air and dust in the wave
environment, which is hindering convection at the time.

A tropical wave is in the Bay of Campeche S of 20N with axis near
94W, moving west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. A cluster of
heavy showers and scattered tstms over southern Mexico extends to
the Bay of Campeche S of 19N between 92W and 95W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 20N16W and then continues along 14N22W to a 1012 mb
low near 12N29W to 07N36W to 07N43W. The ITCZ begins near 07N43W
and continues west to 06N56W. Aside from the convection associated
with the low pressure center, scattered moderate convection is
from 07N-13N E of 23W. Isolated showers are within 120 nm north of
the ITCZ west of 49W; similar convection is within 120 nm S of the
monsoon trough between 33W and 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging continue to cover most of the basin N of 21N
and provides gentle to moderate return flow. South of 21N, in the
Bay of Campeche, a tropical wave is generating heavy showers and
scattered tstms S of 19N between 92W and 95W. The latest
scatterometer pass show fresh to strong NE winds within 120 nm
off the western Yucatan Peninsula. For further information about
the wave refer to the tropical waves section above. In the middle
levels, a broad low centered over the SW Florida Peninsula covers
the basin E of 90W while an inverted trough moves across SW Gulf
waters. Divergent flow aloft between these two features along with
abundant moisture in the basin support scattered moderate
convection from 22N-25N between 87W and 92W. Isolated showers are
elsewhere N of 22N between 85W and 95W and S of 27N E of 87W.
Expect showers to continue in the Bay of Campeche through Monday
near sunrise. A surface trough will develop and prevail in the SW
Gulf the next two days with high pressure dominating elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad inverted trough in the upper levels along with shallow
moisture in the NW Caribbean support isolated showers and tstms N
of 15N W of 76W while farther east the remnants of a former
surface trough support similar precipitation activity in the
Windward Passage. Isolated showers are also possible for inland
Hispaniola, the Mona Passage and Puerto Rico. Scattered showers
and tstms are within 120 nm off Colombia associated with a 1006 mb
low pressure near 09N73W. The gradient between this low and higher
pressure in the Atlc extending to the northern Caribbean support
fresh to strong winds S of 14N between 68W and 75W. This area of
winds will prevail the next two days, increasing in areal coverage
before Tuesday sunrise. Strong dry air subsidence from aloft
support fair weather elsewhere. A tropical wave will enter the
eastern Caribbean Monday night.

...HISPANIOLA...

The remnants of a former surface trough support isolated showers in
the Windward Passage and inland Hispaniola as well as the Mona
Passage. Moisture associated with this trough will continue to
enhance showers across the Island through early morning Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the Atlantic waters with no
significant convection. Please refer to the waves section above
for details. A middle level low centered over SW Florida support
scattered showers across the Florida Straits and the Great Bahama
Bank. Otherwise, surface ridging and fair weather dominate elsewhere.
No major changes expected in the next two days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS

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