AXNT20 KNHC 300551

205 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Bonnie is centered near 32.8N 80.1W at 30/0300 UTC or about 5 nm W of Charleston South Carolina and about 85 nm SW of Myrtle Beach South Carolina moving S-SE at 1 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 75 nm of center. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 02N42W to 12N41W moving W at 20 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 38W and 45W on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored over the Cape Verde Islands. Scattered moderate convection is from the Equator to 09N between 34W and 42W.

Tropical wave extends from 06N71W to 15N70W moving W at 15 kt. The wave remains embedded within 700 mb troughing over northern South America and southern portions of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 14N between 68W and 73W.

Tropical wave extends from 06N86W to 17N85W moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 06N to 15N between 83W and 88W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 05N21W. The ITCZ axis extends from 05N21W to 04N31W to 04N42W to 02N50W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N to 08N between 09W and 17W.


GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough axis extends from over the SE CONUS near the South Carolina coast S-SE to over the central Bahamas near 23N77W with primarily W to NW flow prevailing over much of the Gulf basin this evening. Water vapor imagery indicates fairly dry and stable conditions aloft which is further supported by a 1018 mb high centered in the north- central Gulf waters near 29N89W. Mostly clear skies are noted on satellite imagery with a few isolated showers and tstms occurring within convective debris cloudiness across the western waters W of 94W. Otherwise...gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are expected through Tuesday and this synoptic pattern is expected through much of next week as the ridge moves eastward gradually into the NE Gulf waters by Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA... The base of a middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over Cuba and the Windward Passage region providing the NW Caribbean with primarily dry and stable NW flow influencing much of the basin W of 78W. Conditions W of 78W remain fairly tranquil with only a few isolated showers and tstms occurring W of Jamaica from 16N to 20N between 78W and 85W. The presence of a tropical wave along 86W across Honduras and western Nicaragua is also providing focus for scattered showers and strong tstms S of 15N. E of 78W...maximum middle to upper level diffluence associated with the troughing over the SW North Atlc is providing for scattered showers and tstms N of 15N between 67W and 79W. The upper level trough will gradually lift N of 20N by Monday night...however upper level troughing will persist over the SW North Atlc off the coast of Florida with a relatively weak diffluent environment remaining E of 75W across Hispaniola...Puerto Rico...and the US/UK Virgin Islands through Tuesday night. This will result in increased probabilities of precipitation through the middle of next week across the north- central and NE Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the island and adjacent coastal waters this evening due to a middle to upper level diffluent environment over the island on the southeastern periphery of an upper level trough anchored from over Florida to the central Bahamas. The upper level trough will weaken slightly however remain across the SW North Atlc through early next week providing higher probability for precipitation and convection through the first half of this week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Depression Bonnie continues to provide focus for the SE CONUS Atlc coast this evening as it tracks along the Carolina coast through Wednesday. towards the South Carolina coast. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a relatively diffluent environment aloft due to a middle to upper level trough axis extending from over the Florida peninsula to the central Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring from 20N to 25N between 68W and 79W...and within 120 nm either side of a line from 25N71W to 3276W. The upper level troughing is expected to persist off the coast of Florida through Tuesday. Farther east...a trio of high centers influence the central and eastern Atlc...a 1025 mb high centered near 31N21W...a 1025 mb high centered near 28N29W and a 1023 mb high centered near 26N49W. Overall...fair weather conditions prevail E of 50W.

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