AXNT20 KNHC 261118

805 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC.


Tropical wave over Africa extends from 6N12W to 14N9W moving west-northwest 10 to 15 kt. Wave is in the vicinity of a 700 mb trough and is embedded within an area of deep moisture. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 75 NM of the trough axis north of 6N to the coast of southwest Africa.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from 2N41W to 9N40W moving west-northwest 10 to 15 kt. Wave is embedded within a weak low amplitude 700 mb trough and is along the leading edge of a low amplitude area of deep moisture. Any convection in the vicinity is associated with the ITCZ not the tropical wave.

Tropical wave is inland over South America along 64W/65W south of 10N moving west near 15 kt. Wave is embedded within a weak low amplitude 700 mb trough. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave that was in the southwest Caribbean has interacted with the broad upper trough and the energy has been absorbed by the upper trough and was dropped from the 25/0600 utc analysis.


The monsoon trough extends across west Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W along 6N18W to 5N21W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 4N26W to just east of the tropical wave near 6N40W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 5N-11N between 34W-53W. A surface trough is north of Suriname South America extending from 12N55W through a weak 1013 mb low near 8N55W to 7N55W.



A broad upper ridge anchored in the east Pacific region extends across Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico near Tuxpan to over the southeast CONUS near the lower Mississippi Valley while an upper trough covers the far east Gulf of Mexico across Florida into the west Atlantic. This is giving the Gulf west to northwest flow aloft. The upper ridge is advecting moisture across the far west Gulf generating numerous showers/scattered thunderstorms inland over Mexico and south Texas with scattered showers in the Gulf waters from 24N-28N west of 95W. The remnants of the seabreeze just west of the Florida peninsula is generating isolated showers/thunderstorms from 23N-26N between 82W-85W. Otherwise, a surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across northeast Florida to the Texas/Mexico border. The surface ridge will persist into the weekend. The southeast return flow will reach strong winds in the northwest Gulf Friday and Saturday.


An upper trough extends from the west Atlantic across central Cuba over the west Caribbean covering the area west of 73W while an upper ridge extends from over South America across the Lesser Antilles into the west-central Atlantic covering the remainder of the Caribbean basin. The upper trough is generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms north of 17N to over Cuba and Jamaica between 75W-83W and scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms north of 17N across Hispaniola between 68W-74W and south of 13N to over South America between 59W-75W. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia near 10N75W through a 1010 mb low near 10N78W to across Costa Rica near 9N82W into the east Pacific region. Scattered showers are from 10N-12N between 78W-81W. Fresh to locally strong trade winds across the south- central Caribbean will diminish by Friday.


Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are across the island this morning. The upper trough currently over central Cuba and the western Caribbean will broaden starting Friday night as the low and surface trough in the west Atlantic shifts westward. Lingering moisture and daytime heating could still generate showers and possible thunderstorms through Saturday.


A surface ridge covers the far west Atlantic anchored by a 1024 mb high near 33N73W and extending a ridge axis across northeast Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. An upper trough covers the west Atlantic supporting a surface trough that extends from 31N66W through a weak 1016 mb low near 26N68W to 21N71W. The upper trough is generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms from over the Bahamas to Cuba between 72W-78W and scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms within 120 NM either side of the surface trough. An upper ridge is to the east extending from over South America across the Lesser Antilles and into the west-central Atlantic along 23N64W to beyond 32N54W. A second surface trough is east of the Leeward Islands extending from 21N62W to 16N60W with possible isolated showers within 120 NM of the surface trough. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1027 mb high near 36N49W. The west Atlantic low/surface trough will move slowly northwest and should be north of 31N by Monday.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ PAW