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AXNT20 KNHC 282333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 4N20W TO 4N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 3N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 0N-4N BETWEEN 11W-19W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 51W-61W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N83W TO 28N87W TO SE LOUISIANA AT 29N90W MOVING S. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF AND COASTAL STATES N OF 28N BETWEEN 82W-92W. 10- 20 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE NE GULF ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE INLAND OVER ALL OF E TEXAS DUE TO A COLD FRONT. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF W OF 95W...AND ELSEWHERE OVER FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS AND SEAS 2-5 FT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...S NICARAGUA...W HONDURAS... AND S GUATEMALA. ELSEWHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...INLAND OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA TO CONTINUE.

HISPANIOLA...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 27N59W TO 23N63W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 55W-67W. ELSEWHERE A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N32W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N27W TO 24N30W TO 20N40W TO 20N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE LOW TO DRIFT S OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DO LIKEWISE WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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