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AXNT20 KNHC 210602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15.5N21W IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N20W 13N22W 10N24W 9N27W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W FROM 21N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 23N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N51W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 26N51W CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 62W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 26N51W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM CUBA TO COLOMBIA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN CUBA FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W...IN HAITI FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W...TO THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER...TO 10N29W AND 9N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N40W TO 9N43W AND 11N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 26W AND 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.


...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N77W...TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 26N90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO THE NORTHWEST OF 30N80W 26N87W 22N93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 21N TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N BETWEEN 79W AND 87W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS... KBBF...KGVX...KGHB...KMDJ...AND KVOA.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

NOTHING IS BEING REPORTED AT THIS MOMENT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM CUBA TO COLOMBIA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN CUBA FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W...IN HAITI FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N82W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N NORTHWARD...INCLUDING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N80W IN PANAMA BEYOND 10N86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W.


...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM CUBA TO COLOMBIA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN CUBA FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W...IN HAITI FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. A RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND THEN THE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO JAMAICA...TO HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N51W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 26N51W CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 62W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 26N51W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 70W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 68W/69W FROM 20N TO 27N. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 62W AND 74W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 15N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO 31N13W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 13W AND 19W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 34W AND 70W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALONG 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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