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AXNT20 KNHC 231135
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...AT 23/0900 UTC...WAS NEAR 13.9N 53.2W...ABOUT 480 NM TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 17 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W.

A GALE WARNING EXISTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR NORTHEAST TO EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10 TO 14 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N43W TO 3N43W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W...TO THE SOUTH OF 21N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH HONDURAS AND WESTERN NICARAGUA...AND MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 17N80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W TO 8N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N29W TO 3N37W TO 4N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 32W AND 37W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CENTER SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT MEANDERS FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 88W AND 96W IN EASTERN TEXAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N34W...TO 29N45W 29N61W...TO 30N78W...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KGVX...KXIH...KVQT...AT KEIR WITH A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG...KSPR...KMIS... KMDJ...AND KIPN. A CLOUD CEILING IS AT 6500 FEET AT KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS AND NEARBY AREAS THAT ARE SLIGHTLY MORE INLAND IN TEXAS. A FEW SITES ARE REPORTING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS SUCH AS IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI AREA AND IN PARTS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. A CEILING AT 6500 FEET IS BEING OBSERVED AT ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. NO LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF AND ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO PANAMA NEAR 7N/8N ALONG 81W...AND BEYOND 7N86W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA ALONG 80W INTO NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 17N80W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...ENDING UP IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 48 HOURS. ANY AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA AS THE CYCLONIC CENTER MOVES MORE AND MORE AWAY FROM THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA...FROM A 28N74W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO HAITI BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ABOUT 150 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW...FROM 73W EASTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 23/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.11 IN GUADELOUPE.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N64W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 35N46W TO 30N45W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 25N33W AND 23N38W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM 20N TO 30N FROM 30W WESTWARD. NUMEROUS STRONG 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 23/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.99 IN BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N34W...TO 29N45W 29N61W...TO 30N78W...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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