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AXNT20 KNHC 272338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N38W TO 10N35W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA. A VERY DRY AFRICAN DUST AREA IS N OF 19N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 28W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N73W TO 11N73W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA BETWEEN 71W-78W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N92W TO 12N94W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO BETWEEN 92W-97W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT 12N16W TO 10N20W TO 9N40W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N40W TO 9N50W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 7N58W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 10W-16W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 40W-56W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE ABOVE. AIR MASS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER SE LOUISIANA... CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N95W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...AIR MASS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER N NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND GUATAMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER E HONDURAS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N66W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W TO THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CUBA.


...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 70W-73W. MORE AIR MASS AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 76W-80W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N54W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N30W TO 23N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 24N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 60W-64W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N49N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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