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000
AXNT20 KNHC 071808 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW WAS 1005 MB AND CENTERED NEAR 21N78W AS OF 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 25N W OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 28N77W TO 22N79W. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE N OF 29N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W BY 08/0000 UTC TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 26N W OF THE FRONT TO 92W BEGINNING 09/0000 UTC. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLC WATERS ON TUESDAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N W OF 68W BEGINNING 09/1200. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 03N09E TO 03N09W TO 03N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 01N33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA WITH COLD ADVECTION MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS E OF 90W BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FL STRAITS NEAR 24N83W TO 23N87W TO 23N92W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. MAINLY ANTICYCLONIC MODERATE WINDS COVER THE GULF W OF 90W AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US BUILDING SE OVER THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO 16N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 73W AND 79W IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF THE TRADE WINDS. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN...ASIDE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TONIGHT AND STALL OUT FROM HAITI TO JUST N OF CENTRAL PANAMA MONDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NW OF THE FRONT.


...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF SE WINDS ARE MAINLY OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH HAITI FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS MAY BRING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS TO HAITI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE AS OF 1200 UTC WAS 1005 MB NEAR 31N78W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 25N77W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT FROM 28N79W TO 24N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO 29N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 71W AND 76W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING W OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N26W TO 10N34W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED. AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N26W SUPPORTS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 22W AND 32W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 33N26W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND E OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLC. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND REINFORCING HIGH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW N ATLC TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

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