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AXNT20 KNHC 301728
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 09.5N45W IS MOVING W-NW 15 KT. THE LOW LIES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM LACKS ANY ORGANIZED SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 43W-48W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N27W TO 10N27W AND IS MOVING W 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE WHICH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...HOWEVER ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 30W FROM 09N-12N.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N52W TO 10N49W AND IS MOVING W 15- 20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W-NW OF THE 1012 MB SURFACE LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO 08N35W TO 09N47W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENGE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N47W TO 07N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N24W TO 07N35W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CUTS ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TO 26N90W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE MODERATE WINDS EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA TO 27N89W AND CONTINUES NW AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND UP TO 90-120 NM S OF THE FRONT. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR N OF THE FRONT. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N92.5W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 78W. A BROAD MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ALONG THE COSTA RICA COAST. FAIR WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN.


...HISPANIOLA... MINIMAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DUE TO CONFLUENCE ALOFT COVERS THE ISLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW TSTMS ARE FORECAST LATER IN THE DAY MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE AREA N OF 29N W OF 72W DUE TO A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ABOUT 8-9 DEGREES IN DIAMETER...IS CENTERED NEAR 25N67W. THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY S OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ANOTHER MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS POSITIONED NEAR 29N47W AND IS DRIFTING S. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC S OF 20N E OF 50W INTO AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE A 1028 MB HIGH IS LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 36N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ CAB

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