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AXNT20 KNHC 031805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 04N16W AND 03N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N21W TO 03N34W 05N43W 03N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 13W AND 17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 08N FROM 42W EASTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH GEORGIA INTO FLORIDA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERNMOST PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST ALONG 19N96W...AND THEN INLAND TO 19N98W IN MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES INLAND IN MEXICO FROM 19N98W TO 24N100W 30N105W...AND BEYOND NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N90W 27N88W 29N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE ALSO FROM 29N NORTHWARD BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 86W.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AWAY FROM THE TROUGH.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

MVFR CONDITIONS...KHHV...KVAF...KHQI...KGUL...KGBK...KEHC... KVQT...KGHB...KEIR.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN THE LOWER VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE IN TEXAS. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE. MISSISSIPPI...MVFR AT THE STENNIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. ALABAMA...MVFR BETWEEN MISSISSIPPI AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FLORIDA...LIGHT RAIN IN MARY ESTHER AND IN VALPARAISO...MVFR IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ELSEWHERE. THUNDER IS NEAR MARIANNA. TOWERING CUMULUS ARE AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MVFR IN NAPLES.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 73W WESTWARD. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM 73W EASTWARD IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N74W TO27N72W TO 24N72W...TO PUERTO RICO...TO 16N67W AND 12N69W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 65W AND 67W... AND POSSIBLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.97 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.96 IN TRINIDAD...0.37 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...0.35 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.11 IN ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.


...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HISPANIOLA IS ON THE WESTERN EXTREME OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONC WIND FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 66W/67W TROUGH.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 2700 FEET. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 1800 FEET. LA ROMANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...MVMR CONDITIONS. PUNTA CANA... FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR/NO CEILINGS. SANTIAGO...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N74W TO 27N72W TO 24N72W...TO PUERTO RICO...TO 16N67W AND 12N69W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 74W AND 78W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N62W 30N64W 27N65W. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY MARK THIS BOUNDARY. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PRESENT.

A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N52W 28N55W 27N57W 22N58W. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY MARK THIS BOUNDARY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N44W 26N43W 22N42W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PRESENT.

A FOURTH SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N37W 19N37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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